AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over HPQ overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
HPQ
HP Inc.
HPQ has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
HPQ Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
HPQ's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
HPQ PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.3x | $19.05 | -34% |
| Forward | 9.3x | $28.88 | — |
| Fair | 9.8x | $25.65 | -11% |
| Current | 11x | $28.88 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $31.53 | +9.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HPQ's PE is in its expensive range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.3x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over HPQ on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
HPQ Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect HPQ's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
HPQ Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.11 | +19% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.62 | -4.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.71 | +4.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.64 | -5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.65 | -5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.74 | -3.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.59 | -13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.78 | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.81 | -15% |
HPQ has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over HPQ on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
HPQ Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.7B | +13% |
| Q2 2026 | $14.4B | +9% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $14.6B | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.9B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.2B | +3.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.5B | +2.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.1B | +1.7% |
HPQ's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $15.7B last quarter, up 13% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.7% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.3% | -1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.5% | -0.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1% | -1.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5% | -2.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.3% | -0.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7% | -0.3 points |
HPQ has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
HPQ Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $756M | +$901M |
| Q1 2026 | $150M | +108% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | -2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | -$145M | -131% |
| Q1 2025 | $72M | +$109M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | -19% |
HPQ has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
HPQ Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +2M shares |
| 1 year | -2.8% | -27M shares |
| 3 years | -7.5% | -75M shares |
| 5 years | -23% | -272M shares |
| Available history | -39% | -597M shares |
HPQ has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $300M |
| Q2 2026 | $100M |
| Q1 2026 | $325M |
| Q4 2025 | $500M |
| Q3 2025 | $200M |
| Q2 2025 | $100M |
| Q1 2025 | $100M |
| Q4 2024 | $900M |
HPQ spent $1.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 5.8% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
HPQ Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
HPQ's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 1.6 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
HPQ Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 23.8 | Neutral |
HPQ's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HPQ PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | HPQ | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 28x | 60% below |
| PE % | 69 | 35 | 34 pts above |
HPQ is trading at 11x earnings, a 60% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
HPQ Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $30.4 | 5.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $29.5 | 2.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $24.7 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.2 | 10% above |
| 200 week MA | $28.8 | 0.5% above |
HPQ has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over HPQ on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
HPQ Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.5 | $24.3 | +18% |
| 2021 | $24.3 | $37.7 | +55% |
| 2022 | $37.7 | $26.8 | -29% |
| 2023 | $26.8 | $30.1 | +12% |
| 2024 | $30.1 | $33.3 | +11% |
| 2025 | $33.3 | $23.3 | -30% |
| 2026 YTD | $23.3 | $28.9 | +24% |
HPQ has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 24% so far in 2026.