AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
GWRE
Guidewire Software, Inc.
GWRE has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GWRE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
GWRE's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
GWRE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 35x | $160 | — |
| Cheap | 73x | $118 | -26% |
| Current | 98x | $160 | — |
| Fair | 171x | $278 | +74% |
| Expensive | 528x | $861 | +438% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GWRE's PE is in its fair range at 98x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GWRE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GWRE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
GWRE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.56 | +180% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.63 | +101% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.86 | +354% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.21 | +$2.41 |
| Q4 2025 | $1.06 | +186% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.81 | +$0.88 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.41 | +$0.55 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.20 | +$0.43 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.37 | +$1.23 |
GWRE has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over GWRE on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
GWRE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $411.1M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $372.5M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $359.1M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $332.6M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $356.6M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $293.5M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $289.5M | +20% |
| Q4 2024 | $262.9M | +27% |
GWRE's revenue has grown year over year for 19 quarters in a row: $411M last quarter, up 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +6.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8.2% | +6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +6.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 5.5% | +7.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 8.3% | +4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5% | +8.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 4% | +9.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8% | +15 points |
GWRE has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
GWRE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $281.8M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $59.4M | +88% |
| Q1 2026 | $108.8M | +28% |
| Q4 2025 | -$72.3M | -$9.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $241.4M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $31.6M | +667% |
| Q1 2025 | $85.2M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | -$63.1M | +$9.9M |
GWRE has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
GWRE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.4% | +339K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -506K shares |
| 3 years | +3.9% | +3.2M shares |
| 5 years | +2.2% | +1.8M shares |
| Available history | +3.7% | +3M shares |
GWRE has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $213.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $244.3M |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | $47.8M |
| Q2 2023 | $14M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GWRE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -3.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -5.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -10.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -11.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -29.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2021 | 2.7x | Moderate |
GWRE has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
GWRE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 34.1 | Neutral |
GWRE's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 34 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GWRE PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | GWRE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 98x | 28x | 252% above |
| PE % | 33 | 35 | 2 pts below |
GWRE is trading at 98x earnings, a 252% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
GWRE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $163.4 | 2.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $160.3 | 0.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $155.2 | 3.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $184.4 | 13% below |
| 200 week MA | $148.6 | 7.7% above |
GWRE has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over GWRE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GWRE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $109.0 | $127.2 | +17% |
| 2021 | $127.2 | $113.8 | -11% |
| 2022 | $113.8 | $60.5 | -47% |
| 2023 | $60.5 | $109.0 | +80% |
| 2024 | $109.0 | $171.2 | +57% |
| 2025 | $171.2 | $205.5 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $205.5 | $160.0 | -22% |
GWRE has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.