AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over GRND overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GRND
Grindr Inc.
GRND has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GRND Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
GRND's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
GRND PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $14.44 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $8.11 | -44% |
| Fair | 30x | $9.13 | -37% |
| Expensive | 32x | $9.61 | -33% |
| Current | 48x | $14.44 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GRND's PE is 48x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over GRND on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
GRND Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for GRND, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
GRND Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.70 | +133% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.30 | +$0.62 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.50 | +$0.89 |
| Q1 2026 | $0.48 | +$1.08 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.43 | +$1.17 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.32 | +$0.03 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.39 | +$0.05 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.60 | -$0.42 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.74 | -$0.42 |
GRND has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over GRND on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
GRND Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $141.4M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $138.1M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $129.9M | +38% |
| Q4 2025 | $126M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $115.8M | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $104.2M | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $93.9M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $97.6M | +35% |
GRND's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2023: $141M last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -36 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 33% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 39% | +7.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | -6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +1.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | -1.8 points |
GRND has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
GRND Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.4M | -8.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $40.8M | +9.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $33.4M | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $24.5M | -16% |
| Q3 2025 | $55.2M | +92% |
| Q2 2025 | $37.3M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.7M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $29.3M | +129% |
GRND has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
GRND Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.8% | -5.1M shares |
| 1 year | -9.7% | -18.7M shares |
| 3 years | -0.1% | -222K shares |
GRND has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | $159.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $158.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $132M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
GRND hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GRND Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
GRND's net debt is about 2.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.1 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
GRND Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
GRND's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GRND PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | GRND | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 48x | 28x | 73% above |
| PE % | 100 | 40 | 60 pts above |
GRND is trading at 48x earnings, a 73% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
GRND Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $14.1 | 2.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $15.1 | 4.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.6 | 6.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $15.8 | 8.4% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.2 | 18% above |
GRND has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over GRND on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GRND Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $10.6 | $10.1 | -4.1% |
| 2022 | $10.1 | $5.14 | -49% |
| 2023 | $5.14 | $8.78 | +71% |
| 2024 | $8.78 | $17.9 | +104% |
| 2025 | $17.9 | $13.5 | -25% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.5 | $14.4 | +7% |
GRND's yearly returns have swung widely, from +104% in 2024 to −49% in 2022. It's up 7% so far in 2026.