AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over GDS overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
GDS
GDS Holdings Limited
GDS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
GDS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak |
GDS's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its cash flow and balance sheet are weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
GDS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 9.8x | $20.05 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $22.42 | +12% |
| Fair | 21x | $43.89 | +119% |
| Expensive | 52x | $106 | +430% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GDS's PE is 9.8x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
GDS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect GDS to return to profit, with revenue growing.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
GDS has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 112% for AAOI versus GDS down 40%.
GDS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -$3.24 | -$2.14 |
| Q2 2024 | -$3.43 | -$2.40 |
| Q1 2024 | -$3.43 | -$2.27 |
| Q4 2023 | -$3.54 | -$2.30 |
| Q3 2023 | -$1.10 | +$0.27 |
| Q2 2023 | -$1.03 | +$0.33 |
| Q1 2023 | -$1.16 | +$0.14 |
| Q4 2022 | -$1.24 | -$0.16 |
GDS has returned to profit: it earned $2.05 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over GDS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
GDS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $462.1M | +6.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $505.3M | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $438.5M | +54% |
| Q3 2025 | $433.3M | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $435.2M | +2.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $408.7M | +3.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $285.5M | -26% |
| Q3 2024 | $393.1M | +4% |
GDS's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $462M last quarter, up 6.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 27% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | -3.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 14% | +3.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | +5.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 17% | +132 points |
| Q3 2024 | 12% | +8.4 points |
GDS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
GDS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $24.3M | +$78.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$48.4M | -$14M |
| Q4 2025 | -$2M | -100% |
| Q3 2025 | -$102.8M | -$80.8M |
| Q2 2025 | -$54.1M | +$172M |
| Q1 2025 | -$34.4M | +$125.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $625.5M | +$680.8M |
| Q3 2024 | -$22M | +$123.3M |
GDS has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
GDS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +5.5M shares |
| 1 year | +15% | +34.8M shares |
| 3 years | +41% | +76.1M shares |
| 5 years | +44% | +78.8M shares |
GDS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
GDS hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
GDS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 4.6x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 6.3x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 8.0x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 25.7x | High |
GDS's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.9 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
GDS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 7.0 | Oversold |
GDS's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
GDS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | GDS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 9.8x | 28x | 65% below |
| PE % | 0 | 35 | 35 pts below |
GDS is trading at 9.8x earnings, a 65% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over GDS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GDS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $25.1 | 20% below |
| 20 week MA | $29.3 | 32% below |
| 50 week MA | $35.6 | 44% below |
| 100 week MA | $33.1 | 39% below |
| 200 week MA | $23.0 | 13% below |
GDS is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 13% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over GDS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
GDS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.7 | $91.3 | +77% |
| 2021 | $91.3 | $47.1 | -48% |
| 2022 | $47.1 | $19.4 | -59% |
| 2023 | $19.4 | $9.12 | -53% |
| 2024 | $9.12 | $22.3 | +144% |
| 2025 | $22.3 | $35.4 | +59% |
| 2026 YTD | $35.4 | $20.1 | -43% |
GDS's yearly returns have swung widely, from +144% in 2024 to −59% in 2022. It's down 43% so far in 2026.