AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
FLYW
Flywire Corporation
FLYW has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FLYW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
FLYW's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
FLYW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 34x | $21.47 | — |
| Current | 35x | $21.47 | — |
| Cheap | 68x | $41.45 | +93% |
| Fair | 120x | $73.41 | +242% |
| Expensive | 276x | $168 | +683% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FLYW's PE is in its cheap range at 35x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 34x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FLYW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for FLYW, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
FLYW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.64 | +4.4% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.61 | +$0.63 |
| Q2 2026 | $0.27 | +440% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.24 | +500% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.11 | +450% |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.02 | -112% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.05 | +$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.04 | +$0.13 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.02 | +$0.09 |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over FLYW on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
FLYW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $250.3M | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $167.7M | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $188.1M | +41% |
| Q4 2025 | $157.5M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $200.1M | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $131.9M | +27% |
| Q1 2025 | $133.5M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $117.6M | +17% |
FLYW's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2021: $250M last quarter, up 25% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 21% | +5 points |
| Q2 2026 | -1.6% | +5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.7% | +14 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6% | +4.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | -6.8% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.2% | -3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -4.9% | +5.1 points |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
FLYW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $125M | -17% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.8M | -11% |
| Q1 2026 | -$16M | +$63.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $4.5M | +$46.1M |
| Q3 2025 | $149.9M | -21% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.5M | +$43.2M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.1M | -$40.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$41.6M | -170% |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
FLYW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +6% | +7.3M shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +2M shares |
| 3 years | +3.4% | +4.2M shares |
| 5 years | +147% | +77.2M shares |
| Available history | +46% | +40.6M shares |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $20.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $10M |
| Q3 2025 | $10M |
| Q2 2025 | $5M |
| Q1 2025 | $49.3M |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FLYW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -4.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -12.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -17.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -26.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -741.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -125.1x | Net Cash |
FLYW has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
FLYW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 89.5 | Overbought |
FLYW's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 90 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FLYW PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | FLYW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 28x | 26% above |
| PE % | 0 | 43 | 43 pts below |
FLYW is trading at 35x earnings, a 26% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
FLYW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $19.3 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $18.5 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $15.7 | 37% above |
| 100 week MA | $14.4 | 49% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.3 | 11% above |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
FLYW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $34.3 | $36.5 | +6.4% |
| 2022 | $36.5 | $21.9 | -40% |
| 2023 | $21.9 | $23.2 | +5.7% |
| 2024 | $23.2 | $20.3 | -13% |
| 2025 | $20.3 | $14.5 | -29% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.5 | $21.5 | +49% |
FLYW has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.