AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
FICO
Fair Isaac Corporation
FICO has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
FICO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
FICO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
FICO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 16x | $717 | — |
| Current | 20x | $717 | — |
| Cheap | 34x | $1,224 | +71% |
| Fair | 54x | $1,954 | +172% |
| Expensive | 72x | $2,633 | +267% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FICO's PE is in its cheap range at 20x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 16x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
FICO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FICO, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
FICO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $44.90 | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $36.32 | +37% |
| Q2 2026 | $34.61 | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $31.56 | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.01 | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.54 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $25.57 | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.22 | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.79 | +22% |
FICO has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over FICO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
FICO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $657M | +27% |
| Q2 2026 | $674.2M | +26% |
| Q1 2026 | $691.7M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $512M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $515.8M | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $536.4M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $498.7M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $440M | +15% |
FICO's revenue has grown year over year for 20 quarters in a row: $657M last quarter, up 27% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | -5.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 54% | +4.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 58% | +8.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 46% | +4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | 46% | +2.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 49% | +6.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 49% | +4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +1.2 points |
FICO has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
FICO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $293.4M | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $379.6M | +33% |
| Q1 2026 | $223.1M | +206% |
| Q4 2025 | $173.9M | -10% |
| Q3 2025 | $219.5M | -2.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $284.4M | +34% |
| Q1 2025 | $72.8M | +8.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $193.2M | +60% |
FICO has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
FICO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +285K shares |
| 1 year | -6.4% | -1.6M shares |
| 3 years | -9.4% | -2.4M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -6.3M shares |
| Available history | -24% | -7.2M shares |
FICO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $2.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $605.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $171.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $548M |
| Q2 2025 | $486.8M |
| Q1 2025 | $217.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $162.6M |
FICO spent $3B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 115% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
FICO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.9x | Moderate |
FICO's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.1 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
FICO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.9 | Oversold |
FICO's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
FICO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | FICO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 20x | 28x | 29% below |
| PE % | 1 | 35 | 34 pts below |
FICO is trading at 20x earnings, a 29% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over FICO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
FICO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $739.0 | 2.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $968.6 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $1,181.6 | 39% below |
| 100 week MA | $1,466.7 | 51% below |
| 200 week MA | $1,338.3 | 46% below |
FICO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over FICO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
FICO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $378.8 | $518.5 | +37% |
| 2021 | $518.5 | $435.1 | -16% |
| 2022 | $435.1 | $616.8 | +42% |
| 2023 | $616.8 | $1,164.0 | +89% |
| 2024 | $1,164.0 | $2,037.3 | +75% |
| 2025 | $2,037.3 | $1,753.2 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,753.2 | $717.4 | -59% |
FICO is down 59% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.