AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
EXLS
ExlService Holdings, Inc.
EXLS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
EXLS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
EXLS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
EXLS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 17x | $43.10 | — |
| Current | 26x | $43.10 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $45.36 | +5.2% |
| Fair | 34x | $56.95 | +32% |
| Expensive | 41x | $68.45 | +59% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EXLS's PE is in its cheap range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 17x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over EXLS on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
EXLS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for EXLS, with profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
EXLS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.54 | +51% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.68 | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.59 | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.57 | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.54 | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.47 | +28% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.44 | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.32 | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.21 | +10% |
EXLS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over EXLS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
EXLS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $634M | +20% |
| Q2 2026 | $594.8M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $570.4M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $542.6M | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $529.6M | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $514.5M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $501M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $481.4M | +16% |
EXLS's revenue has grown year over year for 23 quarters in a row: $634M last quarter, up 20% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -0.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 15% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | +2.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | +1.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | +1.7 points |
EXLS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
EXLS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $102.5M | -3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $73.4M | -23% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.2M | -$1.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $106.5M | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $106.4M | +9.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $95M | +51% |
| Q1 2025 | -$9.7M | +$23.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $95.3M | +41% |
EXLS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
EXLS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -262K shares |
| 1 year | -5.7% | -9.1M shares |
| 3 years | -9% | -15.1M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -19M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -20.9M shares |
EXLS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $25.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $20.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $166M |
| Q4 2025 | $109.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $159.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $41.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $18M |
| Q4 2024 | $12M |
EXLS spent $322M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 39% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
EXLS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
EXLS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
EXLS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 69.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 89.5 | Overbought |
EXLS's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 90 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
EXLS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | EXLS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 7.9% below |
| PE % | 12 | 35 | 23 pts below |
EXLS is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
EXLS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.6 | 8.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.7 | 21% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.4 | 25% above |
| 100 week MA | $39.5 | 9.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $36.0 | 20% above |
EXLS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over EXLS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
EXLS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.0 | $17.2 | +24% |
| 2021 | $17.2 | $28.0 | +62% |
| 2022 | $28.0 | $34.5 | +23% |
| 2023 | $34.5 | $30.9 | -11% |
| 2024 | $30.9 | $44.5 | +44% |
| 2025 | $44.5 | $43.3 | -2.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.3 | $43.1 | -0.5% |
EXLS has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's roughly flat so far in 2026.