AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
EPAM
EPAM Systems, Inc.
EPAM has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
EPAM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
EPAM's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
EPAM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $164 | — |
| Current | 21x | $164 | — |
| Cheap | 24x | $188 | +15% |
| Fair | 36x | $291 | +78% |
| Expensive | 65x | $517 | +216% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
EPAM's PE is in its cheap range at 21x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over EPAM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
EPAM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect EPAM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
EPAM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $14.10 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.99 | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.37 | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.96 | -2.7% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.72 | -14% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.55 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.01 | +0.6% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.15 | -2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.84 | +11% |
EPAM has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over EPAM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
EPAM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +2.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +4.5% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B | +7.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.4B | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.2B | +7.9% |
EPAM's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $1.4B last quarter, up 2.3% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | +1.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.3% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -0.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 10% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.3% | -1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.6% | -1.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +0.4 points |
EPAM has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
EPAM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $274.2M | -4.3% |
| Q2 2026 | -$17.6M | -141% |
| Q1 2026 | -$54.2M | -466% |
| Q4 2025 | $268.1M | +134% |
| Q3 2025 | $286.4M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $43.4M | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.8M | -88% |
| Q4 2024 | $114.5M | -29% |
EPAM has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
EPAM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -798K shares |
| 1 year | -7.8% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -13% | -7.5M shares |
| 5 years | -13% | -7.7M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -6.2M shares |
EPAM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $79.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $85M |
| Q1 2026 | $324M |
| Q4 2025 | $223.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $82.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $196.5M |
| Q1 2025 | $160M |
| Q4 2024 | $13M |
EPAM spent $712M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 58% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
EPAM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
EPAM has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
EPAM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.8 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 93.9 | Overbought |
EPAM's weekly RSI is 72 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 94 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
EPAM PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | EPAM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 21x | 28x | 26% below |
| PE % | 11 | 35 | 24 pts below |
EPAM is trading at 21x earnings, a 26% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
EPAM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $131.5 | 25% above |
| 20 week MA | $114.0 | 44% above |
| 50 week MA | $134.5 | 22% above |
| 100 week MA | $158.5 | 3.3% above |
| 200 week MA | $203.6 | 20% below |
EPAM has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over EPAM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
EPAM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $214.4 | $356.3 | +66% |
| 2021 | $356.3 | $663.1 | +86% |
| 2022 | $663.1 | $323.7 | -51% |
| 2023 | $323.7 | $297.3 | -8.1% |
| 2024 | $297.3 | $238.5 | -20% |
| 2025 | $238.5 | $211.4 | -11% |
| 2026 YTD | $211.4 | $163.8 | -23% |
EPAM has finished four years in a row lower, and it's down 23% so far in 2026.