AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
DUOL
Duolingo, Inc.
DUOL has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
DUOL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
DUOL's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
DUOL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $46.37 | -71% |
| Current | 51x | $157 | — |
| Forward | 51x | $157 | — |
| Fair | 151x | $464 | +195% |
| Expensive | 207x | $637 | +305% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
DUOL's PE is in its fair range at 51.1x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 51.4x.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over DUOL on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
DUOL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for DUOL, but weaker profitability. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
DUOL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.07 | -0.5% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.08 | -61% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.49 | +249% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.74 | +331% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.57 | +356% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.89 | +329% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.43 | +72% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.03 | +107% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.88 | +437% |
DUOL has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over DUOL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
DUOL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $309M | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $298.5M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $292M | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $282.9M | +35% |
| Q3 2025 | $271.7M | +41% |
| Q2 2025 | $252.3M | +41% |
| Q1 2025 | $230.7M | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $209.6M | +39% |
DUOL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $309M last quarter, up 14% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8% | -5.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | -1.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | +8.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 6.6% | +3.4 points |
DUOL has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
DUOL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $78.5M | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $81.4M | -9.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $150.6M | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $96.6M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $79.4M | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.5M | +57% |
| Q1 2025 | $104.3M | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $81.4M | +69% |
DUOL has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
DUOL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -101K shares |
| 1 year | +1.6% | +786K shares |
| 3 years | +6.4% | +3M shares |
| 5 years | +279% | +36.8M shares |
| Available history | +39% | +14M shares |
DUOL has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $45.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $24.3M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
DUOL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -7.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -6.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -6.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -6.9x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -8.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -10.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -10.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -10.7x | Net Cash |
DUOL has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
DUOL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 58.5 | Neutral |
DUOL's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 59 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
DUOL PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | DUOL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 51x | 28x | 83% above |
| PE % | 37 | 44 | 7 pts below |
DUOL is trading at 51x earnings, a 83% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
DUOL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $146.5 | 7.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $140.5 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $132.5 | 19% above |
| 100 week MA | $241.7 | 35% below |
| 200 week MA | $215.7 | 27% below |
DUOL has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over DUOL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
DUOL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $140.3 | $109.0 | -22% |
| 2022 | $109.0 | $70.7 | -35% |
| 2023 | $70.7 | $226.9 | +221% |
| 2024 | $226.9 | $333.3 | +47% |
| 2025 | $333.3 | $181.7 | -46% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.7 | $157.4 | -13% |
DUOL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +221% in 2023 to −46% in 2025. It's down 13% so far in 2026.