AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

DSGX

The Descartes Systems Group Inc.

79
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation78/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential13/ 100

DSGX has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

DSGX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Strong

DSGX's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

DSGX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE34x67x101x134x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE34x67x101x134x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward37x$95.47—
Current43x$95.47—
Cheap56x$123+29%
Fair68x$150+57%
Expensive110x$242+154%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

DSGX's PE is in its cheap range at 43x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 37x next year's earnings.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

DSGX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for DSGX, with profitability improving.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails DSGX on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

DSGX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+30%$124.17
Downside-13%$82.96

Calculated from the latest close: $95.47 on Nov 12.

DSGX has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

DSGX Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.31Q1 2024: $1.33Q2 2024: $1.39Q3 2024: $1.47Q4 2024: $1.59Q1 2025: $1.65Q2 2025: $1.66Q3 2025: $1.69Q4 2025: $1.77Q1 2026: $1.91Q2 2026: $2.06Q3 2026: $2.20Forward: $2.58
Q4 2023: $1.31Q1 2024: $1.33Q2 2024: $1.39Q3 2024: $1.47Q4 2024: $1.59Q1 2025: $1.65Q2 2025: $1.66Q3 2025: $1.69Q4 2025: $1.77Q1 2026: $1.91Q2 2026: $2.06Q3 2026: $2.20Forward: $2.58
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.58+17%
Q3 2026$2.20+30%
Q2 2026$2.06+24%
Q1 2026$1.91+16%
Q4 2025$1.77+11%
Q3 2025$1.69+15%
Q2 2025$1.66+19%
Q1 2025$1.65+24%
Q4 2024$1.59+21%

DSGX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over DSGX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

DSGX Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $145MQ1 2024: $148MQ2 2024: $151MQ3 2024: $163MQ4 2024: $169MQ1 2025: $167MQ2 2025: $169MQ3 2025: $180MQ4 2025: $186MQ1 2026: $195MQ2 2026: $194MQ3 2026: $201M
Q4 2023: $145MQ1 2024: $148MQ2 2024: $151MQ3 2024: $163MQ4 2024: $169MQ1 2025: $167MQ2 2025: $169MQ3 2025: $180MQ4 2025: $186MQ1 2026: $195MQ2 2026: $194MQ3 2026: $201M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$201.1M+12%
Q2 2026$193.6M+15%
Q1 2026$194.6M+16%
Q4 2025$185.8M+10%
Q3 2025$179.8M+10%
Q2 2025$168.7M+11%
Q1 2025$167.5M+13%
Q4 2024$168.8M+17%

DSGX's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $201M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

DSGX Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $55MQ1 2024: $50MQ2 2024: $61MQ3 2024: $33MQ4 2024: $59MQ1 2025: $59MQ2 2025: $52MQ3 2025: $62MQ4 2025: $72MQ1 2026: $76MQ2 2026: $73MQ3 2026: $79M
Q4 2023: $55MQ1 2024: $50MQ2 2024: $61MQ3 2024: $33MQ4 2024: $59MQ1 2025: $59MQ2 2025: $52MQ3 2025: $62MQ4 2025: $72MQ1 2026: $76MQ2 2026: $73MQ3 2026: $79M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$78.9M+27%
Q2 2026$73.2M+41%
Q1 2026$75.9M+30%
Q4 2025$71.5M+22%
Q3 2025$62.1M+88%
Q2 2025$51.7M-15%
Q1 2025$58.6M+16%
Q4 2024$58.8M+7.8%

DSGX has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

DSGX Total Shares

Q4 2023: 87MQ1 2024: 87MQ2 2024: 87MQ3 2024: 87MQ4 2024: 87MQ1 2025: 88MQ2 2025: 88MQ3 2025: 88MQ4 2025: 88MQ1 2026: 88MQ2 2026: 87MQ3 2026: 87M
Q4 2023: 87MQ1 2024: 87MQ2 2024: 87MQ3 2024: 87MQ4 2024: 87MQ1 2025: 88MQ2 2025: 88MQ3 2025: 88MQ4 2025: 88MQ1 2026: 88MQ2 2026: 87MQ3 2026: 87M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-334K shares
1 year-0.6%-530K shares
3 years+0.3%+277K shares
5 years+1.1%+932K shares
Available history+2%+1.7M shares

DSGX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

DSGX Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -1.3xQ1 2024: -1.4xQ2 2024: -1.0xQ3 2024: -1.0xQ4 2024: -0.7xQ1 2025: -0.9xQ2 2025: -0.6xQ3 2025: -0.9xQ4 2025: -0.9xQ1 2026: -1.1xQ2 2026: -1.2xQ3 2026: -1.2x
Q4 2023: -1.3xQ1 2024: -1.4xQ2 2024: -1.0xQ3 2024: -1.0xQ4 2024: -0.7xQ1 2025: -0.9xQ2 2025: -0.6xQ3 2025: -0.9xQ4 2025: -0.9xQ1 2026: -1.1xQ2 2026: -1.2xQ3 2026: -1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-1.2xNet Cash
Q2 2026-1.2xNet Cash
Q1 2026-1.1xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.6xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.7xNet Cash

DSGX has more cash than debt.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

DSGX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI66.7Neutral
Stochastic89.2Overbought

DSGX's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

DSGX PE vs Technology Sector

MetricDSGXSector medianRelative
PE43x28x56% above
PE %113524 pts below

DSGX is trading at 43x earnings, a 56% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

DSGX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$87.88.7% above
20 week MA$80.718% above
50 week MA$77.523% above
100 week MA$90.45.6% above
200 week MA$88.97.5% above

DSGX has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over DSGX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

DSGX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$42.7$59.7+40%
2021$59.7$80.9+36%
2022$80.9$68.5-15%
2023$68.5$84.1+23%
2024$84.1$114.0+36%
2025$114.0$89.4-22%
2026 YTD$89.4$95.5+6.7%

DSGX has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 6.7% so far in 2026.

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