AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI has the edge over DOX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.

DOX

Amdocs Limited

48
Fundamentals59/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential17/ 100
Risk potential39/ 100

DOX has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

DOX Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Healthy
Healthy

DOX's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

DOX PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.9x12x18x23x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.9x12x18x23x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward8.1x$44.11—
Current11x$44.11—
Cheap14x$60.81+38%
Fair18x$76.51+73%
Expensive20x$85.23+93%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

DOX's PE is in its cheap range at 11x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 8.1x.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

AAOI has the edge over DOX on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

DOX Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong decline
Decline
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect DOX's earnings and revenue to decline, with profitability weakening. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI has a better modeled risk to reward balance than DOX, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

DOX Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+8%$47.57
Downside-39%$26.93

Calculated from the latest close: $44.11 on Nov 12.

DOX trails AAOI on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

DOX Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $4.48Q4 2023: $4.67Q1 2024: $4.45Q2 2024: $4.34Q3 2024: $4.21Q4 2024: $4.28Q1 2025: $4.72Q2 2025: $4.90Q3 2025: $5.05Q4 2025: $5.17Q1 2026: $5.00Q2 2026: $4.20Forward: $5.47
Q3 2023: $4.48Q4 2023: $4.67Q1 2024: $4.45Q2 2024: $4.34Q3 2024: $4.21Q4 2024: $4.28Q1 2025: $4.72Q2 2025: $4.90Q3 2025: $5.05Q4 2025: $5.17Q1 2026: $5.00Q2 2026: $4.20Forward: $5.47
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$5.47+30%
Q2 2026$4.20-14%
Q1 2026$5.00+5.9%
Q4 2025$5.17+21%
Q3 2025$5.05+20%
Q2 2025$4.90+13%
Q1 2025$4.72+6.1%
Q4 2024$4.28-8.4%
Q3 2024$4.21-6%

DOX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over DOX on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

DOX Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $1.2BQ4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $1.3BQ4 2024: $1.1BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.2BQ2 2026: $1.2B
Q3 2023: $1.2BQ4 2023: $1.2BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.3BQ3 2024: $1.3BQ4 2024: $1.1BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.2BQ2 2026: $1.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$1.2B+2.7%
Q1 2026$1.2B+3.9%
Q4 2025$1.2B+4.1%
Q3 2025$1.2B-9%
Q2 2025$1.1B-8.4%
Q1 2025$1.1B-9.4%
Q4 2024$1.1B-11%
Q3 2024$1.3B+1.7%

DOX's revenue grew through 2021 and has held roughly level since: $1.2B last quarter, up 2.7% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

DOX Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $246MQ4 2023: $139MQ1 2024: $113MQ2 2024: $175MQ3 2024: $192MQ4 2024: $78MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $212MQ3 2025: $199MQ4 2025: $188MQ1 2026: $80MQ2 2026: $172M
Q3 2023: $246MQ4 2023: $139MQ1 2024: $113MQ2 2024: $175MQ3 2024: $192MQ4 2024: $78MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $212MQ3 2025: $199MQ4 2025: $188MQ1 2026: $80MQ2 2026: $172M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$171.9M-19%
Q1 2026$80.3M-49%
Q4 2025$187.9M+140%
Q3 2025$198.6M+3.4%
Q2 2025$211.8M+21%
Q1 2025$156.5M+38%
Q4 2024$78.2M-44%
Q3 2024$192.1M-22%

DOX has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

DOX Total Shares

Q3 2023: 119MQ4 2023: 115MQ1 2024: 117MQ2 2024: 116MQ3 2024: 116MQ4 2024: 113MQ1 2025: 113MQ2 2025: 111MQ3 2025: 110MQ4 2025: 109MQ1 2026: 107MQ2 2026: 106M
Q3 2023: 119MQ4 2023: 115MQ1 2024: 117MQ2 2024: 116MQ3 2024: 116MQ4 2024: 113MQ1 2025: 113MQ2 2025: 111MQ3 2025: 110MQ4 2025: 109MQ1 2026: 107MQ2 2026: 106M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.7%-1.8M shares
1 year-4.9%-5.5M shares
3 years-12%-14.7M shares
5 years-17%-22.4M shares
Available history-22%-30.5M shares

DOX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

DOX Net Leverage

Q3 2023: 0.4xQ4 2023: 0.5xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.6xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.7xQ3 2025: 0.5xQ4 2025: 0.7xQ1 2026: 0.9xQ2 2026: 1.0x
Q3 2023: 0.4xQ4 2023: 0.5xQ1 2024: 0.6xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.6xQ4 2024: 0.7xQ1 2025: 0.7xQ2 2025: 0.7xQ3 2025: 0.5xQ4 2025: 0.7xQ1 2026: 0.9xQ2 2026: 1.0x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20261.0xHealthy
Q1 20260.9xVery low
Q4 20250.7xVery low
Q3 20250.5xVery low
Q2 20250.7xVery low
Q1 20250.7xVery low
Q4 20240.7xVery low
Q3 20240.6xVery low

DOX's net debt is about a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

DOX Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI30.4Neutral
Stochastic36.7Neutral

DOX's weekly RSI is 30 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 37 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

DOX PE vs Technology Sector

MetricDOXSector medianRelative
PE11x28x62% below
PE %23533 pts below

DOX is trading at 11x earnings, a 62% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has the edge over DOX on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

DOX Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$55.821% below
20 week MA$56.722% below
50 week MA$64.231% below
100 week MA$75.341% below
200 week MA$81.746% below

DOX is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over DOX on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

DOX Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$72.6$69.7-4.1%
2021$69.7$74.3+6.7%
2022$74.3$89.4+20%
2023$89.4$87.9-1.6%
2024$87.9$85.8-2.4%
2025$85.8$81.7-4.7%
2026 YTD$81.7$44.1-46%

DOX has finished three years in a row lower, and it's down 46% so far in 2026.

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