AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over CTM overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CTM
Castellum, Inc.
CTM has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CTM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CTM's revenue and cash flow are currently stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CTM PE Valuation
CTM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CTM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong decline | |
| Stable | |
| -- | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CTM's earnings to decline, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CTM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.02 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.04 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.03 | +$0.05 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.02 | +$0.09 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.03 | +$0.15 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.06 | +$0.12 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.08 | +$0.27 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.11 | +$0.25 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.18 | +$0.20 |
CTM has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CTM on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over CTM on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CTM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.7M | +0.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.9M | -1.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.3M | +23% |
| Q4 2025 | $12.6M | +22% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.6M | +26% |
| Q2 2025 | $14M | +22% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.7M | +2.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.3M | -7.1% |
CTM's revenue is growing: $15M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.8% | -6.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | -7.9% | -5.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -4.9% | +7.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | -11% | +4.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3% | +15 points |
| Q2 2025 | -2.7% | +11 points |
| Q1 2025 | -13% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | -16% | -1.9 points |
CTM's operating margin was −3.8% last quarter, down 6.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CTM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.3M | -234% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3M | +$3.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$671.5K | -$277.1K |
| Q3 2025 | $957K | +30% |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.5M | -10647% |
| Q4 2024 | -$394.4K | -145% |
| Q3 2024 | $738.9K | +$2M |
| Q2 2024 | $748.6K | +33% |
CTM has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CTM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +138K shares |
| 1 year | +5.6% | +5.1M shares |
| 3 years | +96% | +46.5M shares |
| 5 years | +515% | +79.4M shares |
| Available history | +543% | +80.1M shares |
CTM has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CTM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | 29.1x | High |
| Q1 2021 | 11.1x | High |
CTM's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CTM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 36.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 14.3 | Oversold |
CTM's weekly RSI is 36 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CTM PE vs Technology Sector
CTM has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over CTM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CTM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $0.54 | 17% below |
| 20 week MA | $0.60 | 25% below |
| 50 week MA | $0.74 | 39% below |
| 100 week MA | $0.91 | 51% below |
| 200 week MA | $0.67 | 33% below |
CTM is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 33% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CTM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CTM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | $1.47 | $1.22 | -17% |
| 2023 | $1.22 | $0.30 | -75% |
| 2024 | $0.30 | $1.42 | +373% |
| 2025 | $1.42 | $1.03 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.03 | $0.45 | -56% |
CTM's yearly returns have swung widely, from +373% in 2024 to −75% in 2023. It's down 56% so far in 2026.