AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CSCO
Cisco Systems, Inc.
CSCO has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CSCO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Unavailable |
CSCO's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CSCO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $58.68 | -42% |
| Fair | 19x | $71.46 | -30% |
| Forward | 20x | $102 | — |
| Current | 27x | $102 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $104 | +2.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CSCO's PE is 27x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over CSCO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
CSCO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CSCO, with profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CSCO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.14 | +37% |
| Q4 2026 | $3.75 | +45% |
CSCO has the edge over AAOI in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CSCO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CSCO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $18.5B | +24% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.3B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.3B | +9.7% |
CSCO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2026: $18.5B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 25% | +2.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 25% | +2.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | 21% | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | 23% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | N/A |
CSCO has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CSCO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.3B | -12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | -24% |
CSCO and AAOI do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CSCO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +5M shares |
| 1 year | -0.3% | -11M shares |
CSCO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $2B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
CSCO spent $6.1B buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CSCO Net Leverage
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CSCO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 46.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.8 | Oversold |
CSCO's weekly RSI is 47 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CSCO PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CSCO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 27x | 28x | 2.4% below |
| PE % | 81 | 35 | 46 pts above |
CSCO is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
CSCO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $106.4 | 4.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $110.6 | 7.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $98.0 | 4.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $81.5 | 25% above |
| 200 week MA | $66.1 | 54% above |
CSCO has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CSCO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CSCO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $47.8 | $44.5 | -6.8% |
| 2021 | $44.5 | $62.3 | +40% |
| 2022 | $62.3 | $47.5 | -24% |
| 2023 | $47.5 | $50.5 | +6.4% |
| 2024 | $50.5 | $59.6 | +18% |
| 2025 | $59.6 | $78.2 | +31% |
| 2026 YTD | $78.2 | $102.0 | +31% |
CSCO has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's up 31% so far in 2026.