AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over CRNC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside.
CRNC
Cerence Inc.
CRNC has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CRNC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
CRNC's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CRNC PE Valuation
CRNC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over CRNC on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.
CRNC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Decline | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CRNC's earnings and revenue to decline, though with profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CRNC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.82 | — |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.31 | +$0.35 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.40 | +$7.70 |
| Q4 2025 | $0.02 | +$15.24 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.43 | +$13.69 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.66 | +$13.26 |
| Q1 2025 | -$8.10 | -$1.27 |
| Q4 2024 | -$15.22 | -$14.40 |
| Q3 2024 | -$14.12 | -$12.72 |
CRNC has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CRNC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CRNC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $69.6M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $64.2M | -18% |
| Q4 2025 | $115.1M | +126% |
| Q3 2025 | $60.6M | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $62.2M | -12% |
| Q1 2025 | $78M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $50.9M | -63% |
| Q3 2024 | $54.8M | -32% |
CRNC's revenue is recovering but still below its 2023 peak: $70M last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 2.7% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | -3.8% | -26 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | +59 points |
| Q3 2025 | -2.9% | +32 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.5% | +502 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | +412 points |
| Q4 2024 | -33% | -76 points |
| Q3 2024 | -35% | -40 points |
CRNC has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CRNC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $19.6M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.6M | +3.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $35.6M | +352% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.7M | +109% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.1M | +33% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.1M | +$13.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $7.9M | +$11.6M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7M | -52% |
CRNC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CRNC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.8% | +845K shares |
| 1 year | +10% | +4.5M shares |
| 3 years | +18% | +7.4M shares |
| 5 years | +21% | +8.4M shares |
| Available history | +31% | +11.4M shares |
CRNC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $52,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $13,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $7.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $180,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $29,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $802,000 |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4M |
| Q3 2024 | $8,000 |
CRNC spent $8M buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CRNC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2019 | 0.0x | Very low |
CRNC has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CRNC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.1 | Neutral |
CRNC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CRNC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CRNC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
CRNC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over CRNC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CRNC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $8.27 | 1.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $8.62 | 5.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $9.28 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $9.87 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.9 | 37% below |
CRNC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 37% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CRNC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CRNC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.0 | $105.1 | +401% |
| 2021 | $105.1 | $78.9 | -25% |
| 2022 | $78.9 | $18.6 | -76% |
| 2023 | $18.6 | $19.7 | +5.9% |
| 2024 | $19.7 | $8.49 | -57% |
| 2025 | $8.49 | $11.1 | +30% |
| 2026 YTD | $11.1 | $8.16 | -26% |
CRNC's yearly returns have swung widely, from +401% in 2020 to −76% in 2022. It's down 26% so far in 2026.