AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CPAY
Corpay, Inc.
CPAY has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CPAY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Stable |
CPAY's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CPAY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 15x | $456 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $352 | -23% |
| Fair | 23x | $413 | -9.5% |
| Current | 25x | $456 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $518 | +14% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CPAY's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 15x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CPAY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CPAY, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CPAY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $31.05 | +71% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.17 | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $16.42 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $16.70 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.03 | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $14.72 | +5% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.71 | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.25 | +6% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.97 | +5.8% |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CPAY on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CPAY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.4B | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +25% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.2B | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +14% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $1B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +10% |
CPAY's revenue has grown year over year for 22 quarters in a row: $1.4B last quarter, up 18% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 45% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 35% | -8.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 50% | +8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 45% | -2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 45% | -0.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 42% | 0 points |
| Q4 2024 | 47% | +2 points |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CPAY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$735M | -$305.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +30% |
| Q1 2026 | -$107.7M | +$11.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $760.3M | +26% |
| Q3 2025 | -$429.8M | -221% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +119% |
| Q1 2025 | -$118.9M | -138% |
| Q4 2024 | $604.6M | -11% |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CPAY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +60K shares |
| 1 year | -6.7% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -11% | -8.2M shares |
| 5 years | -21% | -17.3M shares |
| Available history | -27% | -24M shares |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $706.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $326.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $786M |
| Q4 2025 | $500.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $191.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $32.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $58.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $248.8M |
CPAY spent $2.3B buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CPAY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.0x | Elevated |
CPAY's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.7 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CPAY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 72.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 66.5 | Neutral |
CPAY's weekly RSI is 72 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CPAY PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CPAY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 28x | 9.9% below |
| PE % | 70 | 35 | 35 pts above |
CPAY is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
CPAY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $413.9 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $399.7 | 14% above |
| 50 week MA | $354.3 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $339.4 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $304.8 | 50% above |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
CPAY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $285.8 | $270.5 | -5.4% |
| 2021 | $270.5 | $223.7 | -17% |
| 2022 | $223.7 | $181.2 | -19% |
| 2023 | $181.2 | $282.6 | +56% |
| 2024 | $282.6 | $341.2 | +21% |
| 2025 | $341.2 | $310.2 | -9.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $310.2 | $456.0 | +47% |
CPAY has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.