AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CMRC
Commerce.com, Inc.
CMRC has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CMRC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Weak |
CMRC's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CMRC PE Valuation
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over CMRC on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CMRC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CMRC's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CMRC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.57 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.09 | +$0.07 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.08 | +$0.14 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.19 | +$0.08 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.24 | +$0.11 |
| Q3 2025 | -$0.16 | +$0.20 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.22 | +$0.32 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.27 | +$0.37 |
| Q4 2024 | -$0.35 | +$0.51 |
CMRC has the edge over AAOI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CMRC on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over CMRC on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CMRC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84.2M | -2.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $84.5M | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $86.8M | +5.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $89.5M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $86M | +2.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.4M | +3.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $82.4M | +2.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $87M | +3.4% |
CMRC's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $84M last quarter, down 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.1% | -1.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 3.2% | +11 points |
| Q1 2026 | 6.6% | +9.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -7.4% | -6.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.5% | +22 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -2.9% | +7.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -0.9% | +5.9 points |
CMRC's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, down 1.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CMRC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.7M | -24% |
| Q2 2026 | $50K | -100% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.1M | +$14.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $7.6M | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.9M | +1.4% |
| Q1 2025 | -$424K | +$3M |
| Q3 2024 | $5.6M | +$37M |
| Q2 2024 | $11.7M | -20% |
CMRC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CMRC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +164K shares |
| 1 year | +2.7% | +2.2M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +7.6M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +11.6M shares |
| Available history | +46% | +26.1M shares |
CMRC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CMRC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.2x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 23.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 28.3x | High |
CMRC's net debt is about 5.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CMRC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
CMRC's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CMRC PE vs Technology Sector
CMRC has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
CMRC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.43 | 3.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $3.06 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $3.13 | 13% above |
| 100 week MA | $4.21 | 16% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.25 | 43% below |
CMRC has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CMRC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CMRC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $72.8 | -7.8% |
| 2021 | $72.8 | $38.5 | -47% |
| 2022 | $38.5 | $8.34 | -78% |
| 2023 | $8.34 | $9.73 | +17% |
| 2024 | $9.73 | $6.13 | -37% |
| 2025 | $6.13 | $4.19 | -32% |
| 2026 YTD | $4.19 | $3.54 | -16% |
CMRC has finished lower in five of the last six years. It's down 16% so far in 2026.