AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CDNS
Cadence Design Systems, Inc.
CDNS has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CDNS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
CDNS's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CDNS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 35x | $333 | — |
| Cheap | 47x | $238 | -29% |
| Current | 66x | $333 | — |
| Fair | 67x | $337 | +1.2% |
| Expensive | 80x | $403 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CDNS's PE is in its fair range at 66x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 35x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CDNS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CDNS, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CDNS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.42 | +87% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.03 | +30% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.03 | +36% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.29 | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.06 | +5.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.87 | +1.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.69 | -4.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.94 | +2.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.85 | +0.8% |
CDNS has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CDNS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CDNS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +24% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.4B | +6.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | +27% |
CDNS's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $1.6B last quarter, up 22% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | -5.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | +9.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 29% | +0.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | -1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | +3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -8.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 29% | +4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | +2.2 points |
CDNS has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CDNS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $361.9M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $582.3M | +75% |
| Q1 2026 | $307M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $512.5M | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $277M | -28% |
| Q2 2025 | $333.5M | +163% |
| Q1 2025 | $464M | +128% |
| Q4 2024 | $404.2M | +70% |
CDNS has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CDNS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -885K shares |
| 1 year | +0.5% | +1.5M shares |
| 3 years | +1% | +2.9M shares |
| 5 years | -1.1% | -3M shares |
| Available history | -1.9% | -5.2M shares |
CDNS has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $400M |
| Q2 2026 | $200M |
| Q1 2026 | $200M |
| Q4 2025 | $200M |
| Q3 2025 | $200M |
| Q2 2025 | $175M |
| Q1 2025 | $350M |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
CDNS spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 14% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CDNS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
CDNS's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CDNS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.8 | Neutral |
CDNS's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 61 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CDNS PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CDNS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 66x | 28x | 138% above |
| PE % | 46 | 35 | 11 pts above |
CDNS is trading at 66x earnings, a 138% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
CDNS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $330.9 | 0.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $329.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $325.8 | 2.3% above |
| 100 week MA | $317.2 | 5.1% above |
| 200 week MA | $287.9 | 16% above |
CDNS has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CDNS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CDNS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $70.3 | $134.0 | +91% |
| 2021 | $134.0 | $187.5 | +40% |
| 2022 | $187.5 | $161.5 | -14% |
| 2023 | $161.5 | $272.4 | +69% |
| 2024 | $272.4 | $305.0 | +12% |
| 2025 | $305.0 | $318.9 | +4.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $318.9 | $333.3 | +4.5% |
CDNS has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 4.5% so far in 2026.