AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over CACI overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
CACI
CACI International Inc
CACI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
CACI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
CACI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
CACI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $397 | -38% |
| Forward | 19x | $644 | — |
| Fair | 20x | $483 | -25% |
| Expensive | 25x | $606 | -5.9% |
| Current | 26x | $644 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CACI's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CACI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CACI, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
CACI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $34.68 | +42% |
| Q3 2026 | $24.37 | +7.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $24.16 | +8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $24.21 | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $23.33 | +9.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $22.62 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $22.32 | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $21.18 | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.31 | +29% |
CACI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over CACI on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
CACI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.5B | +8.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B | +8.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.2B | +5.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.3B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.3B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.2B | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | +14% |
CACI's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $2.5B last quarter, up 8.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.7% | +0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.3% | +0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | +0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.6% | +1.4 points |
CACI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
CACI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $150M | -2.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $331.5M | +159% |
| Q1 2026 | $156.4M | -27% |
| Q4 2025 | $138.2M | +19% |
| Q3 2025 | $154.1M | +564% |
| Q2 2025 | $128M | -4.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $214.1M | +15% |
| Q4 2024 | $116.1M | +106% |
CACI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
CACI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +140K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +150K shares |
| 3 years | -2.5% | -578K shares |
| 5 years | -6.4% | -1.5M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -3.1M shares |
CACI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $4.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $3.7M |
| Q4 2025 | $4.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $4.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $4.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $153.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $7.1M |
CACI spent $17M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 90% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
CACI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 4.0x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.9x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.2x | Elevated |
CACI's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.6 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
CACI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 69.7 | Neutral |
CACI's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 70 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CACI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | CACI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 5.2% below |
| PE % | 94 | 35 | 59 pts above |
CACI is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
CACI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $627.9 | 2.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $596.0 | 8% above |
| 50 week MA | $572.9 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $516.1 | 25% above |
| 200 week MA | $444.8 | 45% above |
CACI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over CACI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
CACI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $250.8 | $246.5 | -1.7% |
| 2021 | $246.5 | $266.7 | +8.2% |
| 2022 | $266.7 | $299.3 | +12% |
| 2023 | $299.3 | $323.9 | +8.2% |
| 2024 | $323.9 | $406.2 | +25% |
| 2025 | $406.2 | $542.0 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $542.0 | $643.9 | +19% |
CACI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 19% so far in 2026.