AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over BOX overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
BOX
Box, Inc.
BOX has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BOX Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
BOX's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
BOX PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 25x | $17.07 | -61% |
| Forward | 26x | $43.63 | — |
| Fair | 41x | $28.20 | -35% |
| Current | 64x | $43.63 | — |
| Expensive | 127x | $86.28 | +98% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BOX's PE is in its expensive range at 64x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 26x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BOX Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BOX, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
BOX Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.67 | +146% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.68 | -46% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.64 | -51% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.58 | -57% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.25 | +56% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.25 | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.30 | +78% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.36 | +103% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.80 | +281% |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over BOX on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
BOX Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $321.1M | +9.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $305.9M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $305.9M | +9.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $301.1M | +9.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $294M | +8.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $276.3M | +4.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $279.5M | +6.3% |
| Q4 2024 | $275.9M | +5.5% |
BOX's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $321M last quarter, up 9.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9% | +6.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.3% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 7% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3% | -4.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 6.4% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.5% | +4.1 points |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
BOX Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $70.7M | +61% |
| Q2 2026 | $138.9M | +9.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $108.5M | +6.8% |
| Q4 2025 | $71.3M | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $43.9M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $126.7M | -2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $101.5M | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $62.3M | -13% |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
BOX Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -420K shares |
| 1 year | -7.5% | -11.4M shares |
| 3 years | -6.9% | -10.3M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -22M shares |
| Available history | -5.9% | -8.8M shares |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $69.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $116.4M |
| Q1 2026 | $123.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $76.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $39.9M |
| Q2 2025 | $49.7M |
| Q1 2025 | $42.4M |
| Q4 2024 | $30M |
BOX spent $386M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 138% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BOX Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | 0.3x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
BOX's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), after holding more cash than debt a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BOX Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 73.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 89.4 | Overbought |
BOX's weekly RSI is 73 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 89 (overbought).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BOX PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | BOX | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 64x | 28x | 130% above |
| PE % | 73 | 35 | 38 pts above |
BOX is trading at 64x earnings, a 130% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
BOX Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.3 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $34.9 | 25% above |
| 50 week MA | $29.5 | 48% above |
| 100 week MA | $30.9 | 41% above |
| 200 week MA | $29.6 | 47% above |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
BOX Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $17.0 | $19.3 | +13% |
| 2021 | $19.3 | $26.8 | +39% |
| 2022 | $26.8 | $31.0 | +16% |
| 2023 | $31.0 | $25.6 | -17% |
| 2024 | $25.6 | $32.0 | +25% |
| 2025 | $32.0 | $30.1 | -6.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.1 | $43.6 | +45% |
BOX has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.