AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BMI
Badger Meter, Inc.
BMI has a slight edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BMI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
BMI's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
BMI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 32x | $154 | — |
| Current | 35x | $154 | — |
| Cheap | 37x | $160 | +4.3% |
| Fair | 49x | $212 | +38% |
| Expensive | 55x | $238 | +55% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BMI's PE is in its cheap range at 35x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 32x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over BMI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
BMI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect BMI's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
BMI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.87 | +12% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.33 | -7.9% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.28 | -6.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.43 | -2.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.80 | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.70 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.59 | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.54 | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.23 | +35% |
BMI has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over BMI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
BMI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $235.9M | +0.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $222.3M | -6.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $202.3M | -9% |
| Q4 2025 | $220.7M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $235.7M | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $238.1M | +9.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $222.2M | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $205.2M | +12% |
BMI's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $236M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 18% | -1.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | -4.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -0.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | +3.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 19% | +1.5 points |
BMI has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
BMI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $40.3M | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.9M | -46% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.5M | -2% |
| Q4 2025 | $50.8M | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $48.2M | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $40.6M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $30.1M | +60% |
| Q4 2024 | $47.4M | +32% |
BMI has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
BMI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.9% | -271K shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -712K shares |
| 3 years | -1.9% | -550K shares |
| 5 years | -1.3% | -395K shares |
BMI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $55.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $25.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $38.2M |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | $182,000 |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BMI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
BMI has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BMI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.5 | Neutral |
BMI's weekly RSI is 58 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BMI PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | BMI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 28x | 27% above |
| PE % | 14 | 35 | 21 pts below |
BMI is trading at 35x earnings, a 27% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
BMI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.8 | 9.1% above |
| 20 week MA | $137.7 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $144.3 | 6.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $174.9 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $169.6 | 9.5% below |
BMI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over BMI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BMI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $66.1 | $93.7 | +42% |
| 2021 | $93.7 | $105.2 | +12% |
| 2022 | $105.2 | $109.6 | +4.2% |
| 2023 | $109.6 | $154.4 | +41% |
| 2024 | $154.4 | $215.5 | +40% |
| 2025 | $215.5 | $180.8 | -16% |
| 2026 YTD | $180.8 | $153.6 | -15% |
BMI has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 15% so far in 2026.