AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
BLKB
Blackbaud, Inc.
BLKB has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BLKB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Under pressure |
BLKB's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
BLKB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 9.3x | $53.56 | — |
| Cheap | 17x | $54.16 | +1.1% |
| Current | 17x | $53.56 | — |
| Fair | 142x | $460 | +758% |
| Expensive | 477x | $1,540 | +2774% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BLKB's PE is in its cheap range at 17x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.3x next year's earnings.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
BLKB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BLKB, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
BLKB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.79 | +79% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.23 | +$8.13 |
| Q2 2026 | $3.19 | +$8.67 |
| Q1 2026 | $2.94 | +$8.54 |
| Q4 2025 | $2.37 | +$7.97 |
| Q3 2025 | -$4.90 | -580% |
| Q2 2025 | -$5.48 | -794% |
| Q1 2025 | -$5.60 | -1466% |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.60 | -18767% |
BLKB has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over BLKB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
BLKB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $292.6M | +4.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $290.6M | +3.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $281.1M | +3.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $295.3M | -2.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $281.1M | -1.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $281.4M | -2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $270.7M | -3.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $302.2M | +2.4% |
BLKB's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $293M last quarter, up 4.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 21% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +11 points |
| Q4 2025 | 20% | +142 points |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 20% | +5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 7.5% | +3.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | -121% | -132 points |
BLKB has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
BLKB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $138.5M | +2% |
| Q2 2026 | $88.6M | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8M | +7013% |
| Q4 2025 | $55M | -25% |
| Q3 2025 | $135.7M | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $66.3M | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $700K | -99% |
| Q4 2024 | $73.4M | +$77.2M |
BLKB has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
BLKB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +77.3K shares |
| 1 year | -7.3% | -3.5M shares |
| 3 years | -17% | -9.1M shares |
| 5 years | -6.9% | -3.3M shares |
| Available history | -6.9% | -3.4M shares |
BLKB has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $29.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $82.1M |
| Q4 2025 | $83.8M |
| Q3 2025 | $30.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $3.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $100M |
| Q4 2024 | $92.6M |
BLKB spent $214M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 5.4% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BLKB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q3 2024 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2024 | 4.4x | High |
| Q1 2024 | 5.7x | High |
| Q4 2023 | 4.9x | High |
BLKB's net debt is about 3.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.9 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BLKB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 79.9 | Neutral |
BLKB's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 80 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BLKB PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | BLKB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 28x | 40% below |
| PE % | 16 | 35 | 19 pts below |
BLKB is trading at 17x earnings, a 40% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
BLKB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $49.9 | 7.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $44.5 | 20% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.5 | 20% above |
| 100 week MA | $55.2 | 2.9% below |
| 200 week MA | $64.9 | 17% below |
BLKB has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over BLKB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BLKB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $78.6 | $58.9 | -25% |
| 2021 | $58.9 | $81.6 | +39% |
| 2022 | $81.6 | $58.3 | -29% |
| 2023 | $58.3 | $86.7 | +49% |
| 2024 | $86.7 | $74.9 | -14% |
| 2025 | $74.9 | $64.2 | -14% |
| 2026 YTD | $64.2 | $53.6 | -17% |
BLKB has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 17% so far in 2026.