AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

BL

BlackLine, Inc.

65
Fundamentals64/ 100
Valuation71/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential19/ 100

BL has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

BL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Strong
Healthy

BL's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

BL PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE138x276x414x552x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE138x276x414x552x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward11x$28.48—
Cheap41x$26.87-5.7%
Current44x$28.48—
Fair68x$44.36+56%
Expensive95x$61.45+116%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

BL's PE is in its cheap range at 44x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

BL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Growth
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for BL, with profitability improving.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails BL on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

BL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+44%$40.89
Downside-19%$23.14

Calculated from the latest close: $28.48 on Nov 12.

BL has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

BL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.81Q1 2024: $1.18Q2 2025: $1.29Q3 2025: $1.11Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.42Q2 2026: $0.56Q3 2026: $0.65Forward: $2.66
Q4 2023: $0.81Q1 2024: $1.18Q2 2025: $1.29Q3 2025: $1.11Q4 2025: $0.39Q1 2026: $0.42Q2 2026: $0.56Q3 2026: $0.65Forward: $2.66
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.66+310%
Q3 2026$0.65-41%
Q2 2026$0.56-57%
Q1 2024$1.18+$1.70
Q4 2023$0.81+$1.30
Q3 2023$0.64+$1.96
Q2 2023$0.11+$1.32
Q1 2023-$0.52+$0.95
Q4 2022-$0.49+$1.48

BL has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over BL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

BL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $156MQ1 2024: $157MQ2 2024: $161MQ3 2024: $166MQ4 2024: $169MQ1 2025: $167MQ2 2025: $172MQ3 2025: $178MQ4 2025: $183MQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $188MQ3 2026: $193M
Q4 2023: $156MQ1 2024: $157MQ2 2024: $161MQ3 2024: $166MQ4 2024: $169MQ1 2025: $167MQ2 2025: $172MQ3 2025: $178MQ4 2025: $183MQ1 2026: $183MQ2 2026: $188MQ3 2026: $193M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$193.4M+8.5%
Q2 2026$187.8M+9.2%
Q1 2026$183.2M+9.7%
Q4 2025$183.2M+8.1%
Q3 2025$178.3M+7.5%
Q2 2025$172M+7.2%
Q1 2025$166.9M+6%
Q4 2024$169.5M+8.8%

BL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $193M last quarter, up 8.5% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

BL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: $50MQ2 2024: $40MQ3 2024: $56MQ4 2024: $43MQ1 2025: $41MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: $63MQ4 2025: $26MQ1 2026: $44MQ2 2026: $43MQ3 2026: $64M
Q4 2023: $40MQ1 2024: $50MQ2 2024: $40MQ3 2024: $56MQ4 2024: $43MQ1 2025: $41MQ2 2025: $31MQ3 2025: $63MQ4 2025: $26MQ1 2026: $44MQ2 2026: $43MQ3 2026: $64M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$64.5M+1.9%
Q2 2026$43.1M+37%
Q1 2026$44.2M+8.3%
Q4 2025$26.1M-39%
Q3 2025$63.3M+14%
Q2 2025$31.4M-22%
Q1 2025$40.8M-19%
Q4 2024$43M+7.2%

BL has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

BL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 72MQ1 2024: 73MQ3 2024: 74MQ4 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 65MQ2 2025: 64MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 66MQ1 2026: 70MQ2 2026: 69MQ3 2026: 68M
Q4 2023: 72MQ1 2024: 73MQ3 2024: 74MQ4 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 65MQ2 2025: 64MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 66MQ1 2026: 70MQ2 2026: 69MQ3 2026: 68M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-1.1%-741K shares
1 year+7.3%+4.6M shares
3 years-5.5%-4M shares
5 years+16%+9.6M shares
Available history+23%+12.5M shares

BL has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

BL Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -4.2xQ1 2024: -4.0xQ2 2024: -9.2xQ3 2024: -9.5xQ4 2024: -12.9xQ1 2025: -6.9xQ2 2025: -6.2xQ3 2025: -5.9xQ4 2025: -5.4xQ1 2026: -3.2xQ2 2026: -3.0xQ3 2026: -2.4x
Q4 2023: -4.2xQ1 2024: -4.0xQ2 2024: -9.2xQ3 2024: -9.5xQ4 2024: -12.9xQ1 2025: -6.9xQ2 2025: -6.2xQ3 2025: -5.9xQ4 2025: -5.4xQ1 2026: -3.2xQ2 2026: -3.0xQ3 2026: -2.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-2.4xNet Cash
Q2 2026-3.0xNet Cash
Q1 2026-3.2xNet Cash
Q4 2025-5.4xNet Cash
Q3 2025-5.9xNet Cash
Q2 2025-6.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-6.9xNet Cash
Q4 2024-12.9xNet Cash

BL has more cash than debt.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

BL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI44.8Neutral
Stochastic40.7Neutral

BL's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

BL PE vs Technology Sector

MetricBLSector medianRelative
PE44x28x57% above
PE %223513 pts below

BL is trading at 44x earnings, a 57% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has the edge over BL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

BL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$29.74.2% below
20 week MA$30.15.3% below
50 week MA$35.820% below
100 week MA$44.836% below
200 week MA$51.044% below

BL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 44% below its 200-week average.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over BL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

BL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$52.4$137.8+163%
2021$137.8$103.9-25%
2022$103.9$65.8-37%
2023$65.8$62.4-5.1%
2024$62.4$61.2-2%
2025$61.2$57.8-5.6%
2026 YTD$57.8$28.5-51%

BL has finished five years in a row lower, and it's down 51% so far in 2026.

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