AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over BDC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
BDC
Belden Inc.
BDC has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BDC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Weak |
BDC's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable, but its balance sheet is weak.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
BDC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 11x | $102 | — |
| Cheap | 15x | $65.72 | -36% |
| Fair | 21x | $94.82 | -7.2% |
| Current | 23x | $102 | — |
| Expensive | 28x | $123 | +21% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
BDC's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over BDC on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
BDC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for BDC, but weaker profitability.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
BDC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.62 | +116% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.45 | -21% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.15 | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.94 | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.91 | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.62 | +31% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.51 | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.17 | +1.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.80 | -15% |
BDC has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over BDC on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
BDC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $966M | +38% |
| Q2 2026 | $750.2M | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $696.4M | +11% |
| Q4 2025 | $720.1M | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $698.2M | +6.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $672M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | $624.9M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $666M | +21% |
BDC's revenue has grown year over year for nine quarters in a row: $966M last quarter, up 38% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7% | -9.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | -0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | +1.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | +2.4 points |
BDC has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
BDC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $81.8M | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $88.6M | +56% |
| Q1 2026 | -$63.1M | -$38.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $121.3M | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $65.3M | -2.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $56.9M | -6.7% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24.8M | -$3.2M |
| Q4 2024 | $116.4M | +11% |
BDC has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
BDC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -203K shares |
| 1 year | -2.6% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | -8.3% | -3.5M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -6.3M shares |
| Available history | -7.9% | -3.3M shares |
BDC has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BDC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.0x | Healthy |
BDC's net debt is about 5.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 2.3 years a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BDC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 15.0 | Oversold |
BDC's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 15 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BDC PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | BDC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 28x | 18% below |
| PE % | 61 | 35 | 26 pts above |
BDC is trading at 23x earnings, a 18% discount to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over BDC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BDC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $105.9 | 3.4% below |
| 20 week MA | $113.0 | 9.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $117.6 | 13% below |
| 100 week MA | $115.8 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $103.4 | 1.1% below |
BDC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.1% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over BDC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BDC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $55.5 | $41.6 | -25% |
| 2021 | $41.6 | $63.7 | +53% |
| 2022 | $63.7 | $73.2 | +15% |
| 2023 | $73.2 | $77.3 | +5.5% |
| 2024 | $77.3 | $113.5 | +47% |
| 2025 | $113.5 | $118.4 | +4.3% |
| 2026 YTD | $118.4 | $102.2 | -14% |
BDC has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 14% so far in 2026.