AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over BBAI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
BBAI
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc.
BBAI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
BBAI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
BBAI's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
BBAI PE Valuation
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on the outlook, with more favorable earnings expectations.
BBAI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses steady | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect BBAI's revenue to grow and its profitability to improve, with its earnings holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
BBAI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$0.37 | +$1.10 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.21 | +$1.28 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.87 | -$0.04 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.00 | +$0.25 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.47 | -$0.58 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.49 | -$0.68 |
| Q1 2025 | -$0.83 | +$0.05 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.25 | -$0.85 |
BBAI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.37 per share over the past year, against $1.62 at its worst in late 2022.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
BBAI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $43.6M | +31% |
| Q2 2026 | $36.7M | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $34.4M | -0.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $27.3M | -38% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.1M | -20% |
| Q2 2025 | $32.5M | -18% |
| Q1 2025 | $34.8M | +4.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $43.8M | +8% |
BBAI's revenue has held roughly level: $44M last quarter, up 31% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -229% | -163 points |
| Q2 2026 | -78% | +200 points |
| Q1 2026 | -70% | -9.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -295% | -276 points |
| Q3 2025 | -66% | -41 points |
| Q2 2025 | -278% | -236 points |
| Q1 2025 | -61% | +235 points |
| Q4 2024 | -19% | +2.6 points |
BBAI's operating margin was −229% last quarter, down 163 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
BBAI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$9.8M | -$21K |
| Q2 2026 | -$22.5M | -$18.7M |
| Q1 2026 | -$18.3M | -$11.6M |
| Q4 2025 | -$22.1M | -$7.1M |
| Q3 2025 | -$9.8M | -$7.7M |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.9M | +$3.3M |
| Q1 2025 | -$6.7M | +$7.7M |
| Q4 2024 | -$15M | -$14.9M |
BBAI has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
BBAI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 1 year | +50% | +160M shares |
| 3 years | +247% | +342M shares |
| 5 years | +4529% | +470M shares |
BBAI has 480M diluted shares, up 50% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | — |
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $100.9M |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
BBAI Net Leverage
BBAI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
BBAI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 33.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.9 | Oversold |
BBAI's weekly RSI is 34 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 17 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
BBAI PE vs Technology Sector
BBAI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
BBAI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $2.38 | 13% below |
| 20 week MA | $2.78 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $3.86 | 46% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.53 | 54% below |
| 200 week MA | $3.25 | 36% below |
BBAI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 36% below its 200-week average.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over BBAI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
BBAI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $9.62 | $6.85 | -29% |
| 2022 | $6.85 | $0.73 | -89% |
| 2023 | $0.73 | $2.14 | +193% |
| 2024 | $2.14 | $4.21 | +97% |
| 2025 | $4.21 | $5.73 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.73 | $2.07 | -64% |
BBAI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +193% in 2023 to −89% in 2022. It's down 64% so far in 2026.