AAOI

Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

60
Fundamentals62/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential70/ 100
Risk potential55/ 100

AAOI's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

AVGO

Broadcom Inc.

84
Fundamentals94/ 100
Valuation67/ 100
Upside potential85/ 100
Risk potential17/ 100

AVGO has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.

AAOI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Unavailable

AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

AVGO Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Strong
Strong
Strong

AVGO's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.

AAOI PE Valuation

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.

AVGO PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE52x103x155x207x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE52x103x155x207x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward19x$364—
Cheap27x$211-42%
Current46x$364—
Fair49x$384+5.3%
Expensive86x$671+84%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

AVGO's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 19x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

AAOI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

AAOI has the edge over AVGO on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

AVGO Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Stable
Broad
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AVGO, with profitability holding steady.

AAOI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+125%$118.71
Downside-55%$23.99

Calculated from the latest close: $52.85 on Nov 12.

AAOI trails AVGO on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AVGO Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+95%$709.93
Downside-17%$302.18

Calculated from the latest close: $364.36 on Nov 12.

AVGO has a better modeled risk to reward balance than AAOI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

AAOI Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
Q4 2023: $-1.75Q1 2024: $-1.79Q2 2024: $-1.88Q3 2024: $-2.03Q4 2024: $-4.50Q1 2025: $-4.08Q2 2025: $-3.58Q3 2025: $-3.44Q4 2025: $-0.64Q1 2026: $-0.65Q2 2026: $-0.77Q3 2026: $-0.42Forward: $2.98
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$2.98—
Q3 2026-$0.42+$3.02
Q2 2026-$0.77+$2.81
Q1 2026-$0.65+$3.43
Q4 2025-$0.64+$3.86
Q3 2025-$3.44-$1.41
Q2 2025-$3.58-$1.70
Q1 2025-$4.08-$2.29
Q4 2024-$4.50-$2.75

AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.

AVGO Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.30Q1 2024: $2.70Q2 2024: $2.33Q3 2024: $1.15Q4 2024: $1.23Q1 2025: $2.09Q2 2025: $2.67Q3 2025: $3.92Q4 2025: $4.77Q1 2026: $5.13Q2 2026: $6.01Q3 2026: $7.84Forward: $19.23
Q4 2023: $3.30Q1 2024: $2.70Q2 2024: $2.33Q3 2024: $1.15Q4 2024: $1.23Q1 2025: $2.09Q2 2025: $2.67Q3 2025: $3.92Q4 2025: $4.77Q1 2026: $5.13Q2 2026: $6.01Q3 2026: $7.84Forward: $19.23
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$19.23+145%
Q3 2026$7.84+100%
Q2 2026$6.01+125%
Q1 2026$5.13+145%
Q4 2025$4.77+288%
Q3 2025$3.92+241%
Q2 2025$2.67+15%
Q1 2025$2.09-23%
Q4 2024$1.23-63%

AVGO has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

AAOI Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
Q4 2023: $60MQ1 2024: $41MQ2 2024: $43MQ3 2024: $65MQ4 2024: $100MQ1 2025: $100MQ2 2025: $103MQ3 2025: $119MQ4 2025: $134MQ1 2026: $151MQ2 2026: $192MQ3 2026: $270M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$269.9M+127%
Q2 2026$191.9M+86%
Q1 2026$151.1M+51%
Q4 2025$134.3M+34%
Q3 2025$118.6M+82%
Q2 2025$103M+138%
Q1 2025$99.9M+146%
Q4 2024$100.3M+66%

AAOI has the edge over AVGO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

AVGO Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.3BQ1 2024: $12BQ2 2024: $12.5BQ3 2024: $13.1BQ4 2024: $14.1BQ1 2025: $14.9BQ2 2025: $15BQ3 2025: $16BQ4 2025: $18BQ1 2026: $19.3BQ2 2026: $22.2BQ3 2026: $29.6B
Q4 2023: $9.3BQ1 2024: $12BQ2 2024: $12.5BQ3 2024: $13.1BQ4 2024: $14.1BQ1 2025: $14.9BQ2 2025: $15BQ3 2025: $16BQ4 2025: $18BQ1 2026: $19.3BQ2 2026: $22.2BQ3 2026: $29.6B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$29.6B+86%
Q2 2026$22.2B+48%
Q1 2026$19.3B+29%
Q4 2025$18B+28%
Q3 2025$16B+22%
Q2 2025$15B+20%
Q1 2025$14.9B+25%
Q4 2024$14.1B+51%

AVGO's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $29.6B last quarter, up 86% from the same quarter a year ago.

AAOI Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
Q4 2023: −$5MQ1 2024: −$34MQ2 2024: −$5MQ3 2024: −$21MQ4 2024: −$53MQ1 2025: −$79MQ2 2025: −$91MQ3 2025: −$79MQ4 2025: −$105MQ1 2026: −$144MQ2 2026: −$265MQ3 2026: −$370M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$369.9M-$291.2M
Q2 2026-$265.3M-$174.4M
Q1 2026-$143.6M-$64.3M
Q4 2025-$104.6M-$51.6M
Q3 2025-$78.7M-$58M
Q2 2025-$91M-$86M
Q1 2025-$79.3M-$45.1M
Q4 2024-$53M-$48.4M

AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.

AVGO Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $4.7BQ1 2024: $4.7BQ2 2024: $4.4BQ3 2024: $4.8BQ4 2024: $5.5BQ1 2025: $6BQ2 2025: $6.4BQ3 2025: $7BQ4 2025: $7.5BQ1 2026: $8BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $13.7B
Q4 2023: $4.7BQ1 2024: $4.7BQ2 2024: $4.4BQ3 2024: $4.8BQ4 2024: $5.5BQ1 2025: $6BQ2 2025: $6.4BQ3 2025: $7BQ4 2025: $7.5BQ1 2026: $8BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $13.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$13.7B+95%
Q2 2026$10.3B+60%
Q1 2026$8B+33%
Q4 2025$7.5B+36%
Q3 2025$7B+47%
Q2 2025$6.4B+44%
Q1 2025$6B+28%
Q4 2024$5.5B+16%

AVGO has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

AAOI Total Shares

Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
Q4 2023: 32MQ1 2024: 38MQ2 2024: 39MQ3 2024: 42MQ4 2024: 42MQ1 2025: 50MQ2 2025: 57MQ3 2025: 63MQ4 2025: 60MQ1 2026: 76MQ2 2026: 82MQ3 2026: 88M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+7.7%+6.3M shares
1 year+39%+24.5M shares
3 years+168%+55.1M shares
5 years+224%+60.7M shares
Available history+340%+67.9M shares

AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.

AVGO Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4.3BQ1 2024: 4.7BQ2 2024: 4.8BQ3 2024: 4.7BQ4 2024: 4.8BQ1 2025: 4.8BQ2 2025: 4.8BQ3 2025: 4.9BQ4 2025: 4.9BQ1 2026: 4.9BQ2 2026: 4.9BQ3 2026: 4.9B
Q4 2023: 4.3BQ1 2024: 4.7BQ2 2024: 4.8BQ3 2024: 4.7BQ4 2024: 4.8BQ1 2025: 4.8BQ2 2025: 4.8BQ3 2025: 4.9BQ4 2025: 4.9BQ1 2026: 4.9BQ2 2026: 4.9BQ3 2026: 4.9B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.2%+11M shares
1 year+0.6%+27M shares
3 years+14%+617M shares
5 years+14%+597M shares
Available history+17%+697M shares

AVGO has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

AAOI Net Leverage

AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

AVGO Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.5xQ1 2024: 4.4xQ2 2024: 4.7xQ3 2024: 4.4xQ4 2024: 4.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 2.7xQ3 2025: 2.3xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 1.7xQ2 2026: 1.2xQ3 2026: 0.7x
Q4 2023: 1.5xQ1 2024: 4.4xQ2 2024: 4.7xQ3 2024: 4.4xQ4 2024: 4.1xQ1 2025: 3.1xQ2 2025: 2.7xQ3 2025: 2.3xQ4 2025: 1.9xQ1 2026: 1.7xQ2 2026: 1.2xQ3 2026: 0.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.7xVery low
Q2 20261.2xHealthy
Q1 20261.7xHealthy
Q4 20251.9xHealthy
Q3 20252.3xModerate
Q2 20252.7xModerate
Q1 20253.1xElevated
Q4 20244.1xHigh

AVGO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.

AAOI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI35.1Neutral
Stochastic4.8Oversold

AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).

AVGO Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI51.3Neutral
Stochastic20.3Neutral

AVGO's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (neutral).

AAOI PE vs Technology Sector

AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

AVGO PE vs Technology Sector

MetricAVGOSector medianRelative
PE46x28x67% above
PE %473512 pts above

AVGO is trading at 46x earnings, a 67% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

AAOI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$80.234% below
20 week MA$100.647% below
50 week MA$100.347% below
100 week MA$62.315% below
200 week MA$36.943% above

AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.

AVGO Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$338.07.8% above
20 week MA$362.10.6% above
50 week MA$363.00.4% above
100 week MA$313.816% above
200 week MA$214.370% above

AVGO has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

AAOI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.5$8.77-24%
2021$8.77$5.64-36%
2022$5.64$1.95-65%
2023$1.95$19.3+891%
2024$19.3$37.7+95%
2025$37.7$37.2-1.5%
2026 YTD$37.2$52.9+42%

AAOI has the edge over AVGO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

AVGO Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$31.7$43.2+36%
2021$43.2$66.5+54%
2022$66.5$55.2-17%
2023$55.2$111.6+102%
2024$111.6$241.8+117%
2025$241.8$352.1+46%
2026 YTD$352.1$364.4+3.5%

AVGO has finished higher in five of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 3.5% so far in 2026.

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