AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ASML Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
ASML's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently strong. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ASML PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 35x | $1,375 | -8.2% |
| Current | 39x | $1,497 | — |
| Fair | 43x | $1,684 | +13% |
| Expensive | 56x | $2,177 | +45% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ASML's PE is 39x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ASML Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for ASML, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
ASML has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is down 112% for AAOI versus ASML up 58%.
ASML Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $38.88 | +44% |
| Q2 2026 | $30.61 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $26.91 | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.68 | +40% |
| Q1 2025 | $24.60 | +22% |
| Q4 2024 | $21.42 | -2.9% |
| Q3 2024 | $19.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2024 | $19.11 | -7.5% |
ASML earned $38.88 per share over the past year, up 58% from the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ASML on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ASML Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $13B | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.4B | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.7B | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.8B | +4.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B | +0.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B | +0.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.5B | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.6B | +46% |
ASML's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $13B last quarter, up 55% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q2 2026 | 37% | +4.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 35% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | -3.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 35% | +5.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 35% | +9.1 points |
ASML has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ASML Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.6B | +4571% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B | +292% |
| Q1 2026 | -$2.9B | -$2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $12.2B | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.7M | -54% |
| Q3 2025 | $270.7M | -54% |
| Q2 2025 | $397.4M | -10% |
| Q1 2025 | -$527.8M | +$223M |
ASML has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ASML Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -1.4M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -4.1M shares |
| 3 years | -2.6% | -10.3M shares |
| 5 years | -5.3% | -21.5M shares |
| Available history | -8.6% | -36.2M shares |
ASML has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.5B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B |
| Q3 2025 | $191.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $191.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.9B |
ASML spent $8.7B buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ASML Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
ASML has more cash than debt.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ASML Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 16.3 | Oversold |
ASML's weekly RSI is 44 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 16 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ASML PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ASML | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 39x | 28x | 38% above |
| PE % | 30 | 35 | 5 pts below |
ASML is trading at 39x earnings, a 38% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ASML Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,636.6 | 8.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $1,696.6 | 12% below |
| 50 week MA | $1,531.1 | 2.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $1,160.1 | 29% above |
| 200 week MA | $964.4 | 55% above |
ASML has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ASML on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ASML Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.7 | $483.1 | +63% |
| 2021 | $483.1 | $801.4 | +66% |
| 2022 | $801.4 | $551.4 | -31% |
| 2023 | $551.4 | $756.9 | +37% |
| 2024 | $756.9 | $713.6 | -5.7% |
| 2025 | $713.6 | $1,072.8 | +50% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,072.8 | $1,497.1 | +40% |
ASML has finished higher in four of the last six years, three of them by more than 50%. It's up 40% so far in 2026.