AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
AMAT
Applied Materials, Inc.
AMAT has the edge over AAOI overall, supported by lower modeled downside.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AMAT Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
AMAT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently strong.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
AMAT PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $205 | -46% |
| Forward | 20x | $381 | — |
| Fair | 21x | $263 | -31% |
| Expensive | 29x | $365 | -4.1% |
| Current | 30x | $381 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AMAT's PE is 30x, but its earnings don't support one, so it isn't a reliable read right now.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
AMAT Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for AMAT, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
AMAT Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $18.83 | +49% |
| Q4 2026 | $12.62 | +46% |
AMAT has the edge over AAOI in the latest year-over-year earnings comparison.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over AMAT on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
AMAT Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q4 2026 | $10.4B | +53% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.1B | +25% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.9B | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $7B | -2.1% |
AMAT's revenue is growing: $10.4B last quarter, up 53% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | +3.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | +1.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 26% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 25% | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | 31% | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 30% | N/A |
AMAT has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
AMAT Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.3B | +14% |
| Q2 2026 | $210M | -80% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +91% |
AMAT and AAOI do not have enough comparable growth data to identify a winner.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
AMAT Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -2M shares |
AMAT has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $440M |
| Q2 2026 | $400M |
| Q1 2026 | $337M |
| Q4 2025 | $851M |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.7B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.3B |
AMAT spent $2B buying back its own shares over the past year.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AMAT Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
AMAT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
AMAT Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 13.8 | Oversold |
AMAT's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 14 (oversold).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AMAT PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | AMAT | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 30x | 28x | 8.4% above |
| PE % | 85 | 35 | 50 pts above |
AMAT is trading at 30x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x, though its earnings don't support one.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
AMAT Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $427.8 | 11% below |
| 20 week MA | $477.9 | 20% below |
| 50 week MA | $418.0 | 8.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $298.5 | 28% above |
| 200 week MA | $232.1 | 64% above |
AMAT has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +891% in 2023 to −65% in 2022. It's up 42% so far in 2026.
AMAT Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $61.2 | $85.3 | +39% |
| 2021 | $85.3 | $155.5 | +82% |
| 2022 | $155.5 | $97.2 | -37% |
| 2023 | $97.2 | $162.1 | +67% |
| 2024 | $162.1 | $166.8 | +2.9% |
| 2025 | $166.8 | $261.9 | +57% |
| 2026 YTD | $261.9 | $381.0 | +45% |
AMAT has the edge over AAOI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.