AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has the edge over AI overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
AI
C3.ai, Inc.
AI has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AI's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
AI PE Valuation
AI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
AAOI has the edge over AI on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
AI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect AI's losses to shrink, with revenue holding steady.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI has the edge over AI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$3.09 | -$0.49 |
| Q2 2026 | -$3.35 | -$1.11 |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.15 | -$0.92 |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.83 | -$0.62 |
| Q3 2025 | -$2.60 | -$0.32 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.24 | +$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$2.23 | +$0.10 |
| Q4 2024 | -$2.21 | +$0.09 |
AI lost $3.09 per share over the past year, a bigger loss than the year before.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over AI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI has the edge over AI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $52.4M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $51.6M | -53% |
| Q1 2026 | $53.3M | -46% |
| Q4 2025 | $75.1M | -20% |
| Q3 2025 | $70.3M | -19% |
| Q2 2025 | $108.7M | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $98.8M | +26% |
| Q4 2024 | $94.3M | +29% |
AI's revenue has slid since its 2025 peak: $52M last quarter, down 25% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -188% | -10 points |
| Q2 2026 | -235% | -153 points |
| Q1 2026 | -264% | -175 points |
| Q4 2025 | -149% | -69 points |
| Q3 2025 | -178% | -94 points |
| Q2 2025 | -82% | +13 points |
| Q1 2025 | -89% | +17 points |
| Q4 2024 | -80% | +29 points |
AI's operating margin was −188% last quarter, down 10 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the bottom of its range since 2019.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
AI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.1M | +$36.4M |
| Q2 2026 | -$54.8M | -630% |
| Q1 2026 | -$56.2M | -$33.8M |
| Q4 2025 | -$46.9M | -$7.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$34.3M | -582% |
| Q2 2025 | $10.3M | -45% |
| Q1 2025 | -$22.4M | +$22.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$39.5M | +$14.4M |
AI has the edge over AAOI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
AI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +10% | +14.5M shares |
| 1 year | +14% | +19.6M shares |
| 3 years | +34% | +39.3M shares |
| 5 years | +52% | +52.8M shares |
AI has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q2 2022 | $15M |
| Q1 2022 | — |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AI Net Leverage
AI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
AI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 70.9 | Neutral |
AI's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AI PE vs Technology Sector
AI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
AI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $11.6 | 4.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $10.5 | 15% above |
| 50 week MA | $10.6 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $16.9 | 29% below |
| 200 week MA | $22.3 | 46% below |
AI has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over AI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
AI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $119.6 | $161.0 | +35% |
| 2021 | $161.0 | $34.3 | -79% |
| 2022 | $34.3 | $10.9 | -68% |
| 2023 | $10.9 | $28.7 | +163% |
| 2024 | $28.7 | $35.7 | +24% |
| 2025 | $35.7 | $14.0 | -61% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.0 | $12.1 | -14% |
AI's yearly returns have swung widely, from +163% in 2023 to −79% in 2021. It's down 14% so far in 2026.