AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
AAOI has a slight edge over ACIW overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
ACIW
ACI Worldwide, Inc.
ACIW has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
AAOI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Under pressure | |
| Weak | |
| Unavailable |
AAOI's revenue is currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
ACIW Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
ACIW's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
AAOI PE Valuation
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings.
ACIW PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 20x | $31.80 | -48% |
| Forward | 22x | $61.26 | — |
| Fair | 29x | $46.13 | -25% |
| Current | 38x | $61.26 | — |
| Expensive | 46x | $74.84 | +22% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ACIW's PE is in its fair range at 38x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 22x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
AAOI Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Returning to profit | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect AAOI to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
ACIW Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for ACIW, with profitability improving.
AAOI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.98 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.42 | +$3.02 |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.77 | +$2.81 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.65 | +$3.43 |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.64 | +$3.86 |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.44 | -$1.41 |
| Q2 2025 | -$3.58 | -$1.70 |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.08 | -$2.29 |
| Q4 2024 | -$4.50 | -$2.75 |
AAOI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.42 per share over the past year, against $4.50 at its worst in late 2024.
ACIW Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.82 | +75% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.61 | -35% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.17 | -8.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.98 | -22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.16 | +13% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.47 | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.36 | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.53 | +87% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.91 | +71% |
ACIW has the edge over AAOI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
AAOI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $269.9M | +127% |
| Q2 2026 | $191.9M | +86% |
| Q1 2026 | $151.1M | +51% |
| Q4 2025 | $134.3M | +34% |
| Q3 2025 | $118.6M | +82% |
| Q2 2025 | $103M | +138% |
| Q1 2025 | $99.9M | +146% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.3M | +66% |
AAOI has the edge over ACIW on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5% | +15 points |
| Q2 2026 | -13% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | -8.6% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | -8.6% | -2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | -15% | +10 points |
| Q2 2025 | -16% | +45 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +44 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.5% | +1 points |
AAOI's operating margin was −0.5% last quarter, up 15 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
ACIW Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $426.8M | -12% |
| Q2 2026 | $430.4M | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $425.7M | +7.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $481.6M | +6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $482.4M | +6.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $401.3M | +7.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $394.6M | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $453M | -4.9% |
ACIW's revenue has held roughly level: $427M last quarter, down 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -14 points |
| Q2 2026 | 10% | +1.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 14% | -1.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 23% | -4.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 26% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7% | -5.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | +12 points |
| Q4 2024 | 27% | -9.2 points |
ACIW has the edge over AAOI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
AAOI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$369.9M | -$291.2M |
| Q2 2026 | -$265.3M | -$174.4M |
| Q1 2026 | -$143.6M | -$64.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$104.6M | -$51.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$78.7M | -$58M |
| Q2 2025 | -$91M | -$86M |
| Q1 2025 | -$79.3M | -$45.1M |
| Q4 2024 | -$53M | -$48.4M |
AAOI has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$883M over the past year, against −$302M the year before.
ACIW Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $116.3M | +67% |
| Q2 2026 | $63.9M | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $61.2M | -19% |
| Q4 2025 | $116.6M | -2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $69.6M | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $47.6M | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $76.1M | -37% |
| Q4 2024 | $119.5M | +41% |
ACIW has the edge over AAOI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
AAOI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +7.7% | +6.3M shares |
| 1 year | +39% | +24.5M shares |
| 3 years | +168% | +55.1M shares |
| 5 years | +224% | +60.7M shares |
| Available history | +340% | +67.9M shares |
AAOI has 88M diluted shares, up 39% from a year ago.
ACIW Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -360K shares |
| 1 year | -2.5% | -2.6M shares |
| 3 years | -7% | -7.6M shares |
| 5 years | -15% | -17.2M shares |
| Available history | -15% | -17.3M shares |
ACIW has the edge over AAOI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50M |
| Q2 2026 | $41.5M |
| Q1 2026 | $65.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $52.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $16.3M |
| Q2 2025 | $119.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $14.4M |
| Q4 2024 | — |
ACIW spent $209M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
AAOI Net Leverage
AAOI's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
ACIW Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.7x | Healthy |
ACIW's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
AAOI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 35.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 4.8 | Oversold |
AAOI's weekly RSI is 35 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 5 (oversold).
ACIW Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 70.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 77.4 | Neutral |
ACIW's weekly RSI is 70 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 77 (neutral).
AAOI PE vs Technology Sector
AAOI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
ACIW PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | ACIW | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 38x | 28x | 37% above |
| PE % | 65 | 35 | 30 pts above |
ACIW is trading at 38x earnings, a 37% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.
AAOI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $80.2 | 34% below |
| 20 week MA | $100.6 | 47% below |
| 50 week MA | $100.3 | 47% below |
| 100 week MA | $62.3 | 15% below |
| 200 week MA | $36.9 | 43% above |
AAOI has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 43% above its 200-week average.
ACIW Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $54.6 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $54.4 | 13% above |
| 50 week MA | $47.9 | 28% above |
| 100 week MA | $48.7 | 26% above |
| 200 week MA | $40.8 | 50% above |
ACIW has the edge over AAOI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
AAOI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $11.5 | $8.77 | -24% |
| 2021 | $8.77 | $5.64 | -36% |
| 2022 | $5.64 | $1.95 | -65% |
| 2023 | $1.95 | $19.3 | +891% |
| 2024 | $19.3 | $37.7 | +95% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $37.2 | -1.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $37.2 | $52.9 | +42% |
AAOI has the edge over ACIW on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
ACIW Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $37.7 | $38.5 | +2.1% |
| 2021 | $38.5 | $34.9 | -9.4% |
| 2022 | $34.9 | $22.0 | -37% |
| 2023 | $22.0 | $30.6 | +39% |
| 2024 | $30.6 | $51.9 | +70% |
| 2025 | $51.9 | $48.7 | -6.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $48.7 | $61.3 | +26% |
ACIW has finished lower in three of the last six years. It's up 26% so far in 2026.