AA
Alcoa Corporation
AA's fundamentals are strong and it looks cheap: trading at 7.0x earnings, below its usual 12x.
AA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
AA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
AA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 7.1x | $40.45 | — |
| Cheap | 7.6x | $43.65 | +7.9% |
| Fair | 12x | $67.97 | +68% |
| Expensive | 20x | $114 | +182% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
AA's PE is in its cheap range at 7.0x.
AA Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for AA to show an outlook.
AA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.74 | +21% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.81 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.90 | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.37 | +1581% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.75 | +$6.51 |
| Q2 2025 | $4.25 | +$7.33 |
| Q1 2025 | $3.74 | +$7.50 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.26 | +$3.91 |
AA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $5.74 over the past year, up 21% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
AA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.7B | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $4B | +31% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.2B | -5.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | -1.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +3.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | +3.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.4B | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.5B | +34% |
AA's revenue is growing: $3.7B last quarter, up 24% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 15% | +9.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +6.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | -4.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2% | -7.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 5.6% | -0.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.3% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +32 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.7% | +13 points |
AA's operating margin was 15% last quarter, up 9.9 points from the same quarter a year ago.
AA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $472M | +$538M |
| Q2 2026 | $422M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | -$298M | -$280M |
| Q4 2025 | $294M | +20% |
| Q3 2025 | -$66M | -$63M |
| Q2 2025 | $357M | +190% |
| Q1 2025 | -$18M | +$306M |
| Q4 2024 | $246M | +2360% |
AA generated $890M in free cash flow over the past year, up 71% from the year before.
AA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +1.9% | +5M shares |
| 3 years | +49% | +88M shares |
| 5 years | +39% | +75M shares |
| Available history | +44% | +81M shares |
AA has 266M diluted shares, up 1.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $150M |
| Q2 2022 | $275M |
| Q1 2022 | $75M |
AA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.6x | Healthy |
AA's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
AA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 37.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 11.7 | Oversold |
AA's weekly RSI is 37 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).
AA PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | AA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 7.1x | 19x | 62% below |
| PE % | 7 | 40 | 33 pts below |
AA is trading at 7.0x earnings, a 62% discount to the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x.
AA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $40.7 | 0.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $45.1 | 10% below |
| 50 week MA | $54.9 | 26% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.6 | 7.3% below |
| 200 week MA | $39.6 | 2.3% above |
AA has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 2.3% above its 200-week average.
AA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.6 | $22.0 | +1.8% |
| 2021 | $22.0 | $59.4 | +170% |
| 2022 | $59.4 | $44.2 | -26% |
| 2023 | $44.2 | $34.0 | -23% |
| 2024 | $34.0 | $37.7 | +11% |
| 2025 | $37.7 | $54.3 | +44% |
| 2026 YTD | $54.3 | $40.5 | -25% |
AA has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 25% so far in 2026.