BTC 2050 Momentum
An open-source trading model for Bitcoin that runs in Claude or ChatGPT.
BTC 2050 Momentum returned +10,039% over the backtest, outperforming HODL's +1,750% and ending 5.5× its result.
Stats
- model
- 101.4×
- HODL
- 18.5×
| stat | HODL | model |
|---|---|---|
| $184,990 | $1,013,905 | |
| +1,750% | +10,039% | |
| +45% | +80% | |
| -77% | -38% |
BTC 2050 Momentum grew faster than HODL (+80% vs +45% a year), with a shallower worst fall (−38% vs −77%).
Edge
- model beats HODL by
- 5.48×
| stat | edge |
|---|---|
| 5.90× | |
| 0.70× | |
| 89% of days | |
| +24% |
BTC 2050 Momentum beat HODL by 5.5× and was ahead 89% of the time.
Yearly ROI
| year | HODL | model |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -15% | +48% |
| 2025 | -6.3% | +11% |
| 2024 | +121% | +55% |
| 2023 | +156% | +138% |
| 2022 | -64% | +1.9% |
| 2021 | +59% | +131% |
| 2020 | +305% | +170% |
| 2019 | +77% | +162% |
BTC 2050 Momentum beat HODL in 5 of 8 years; its best year was 2020 at +170%.
Trades
| entry | exit | roi |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 19 | Oct 12 | +3.3% |
| Aug 19 | Sep 11 | +18% |
| Jul 24 | Aug 4 | -2.6% |
| May 23 | Jun 3 | +11% |
| Apr 9 | May 23 | +5.9% |
| Jan 25 | Feb 1 | +12% |
| Jan 7 | Jan 25 | -5.1% |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Nov 15, 2025 | +11% |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Oct 18, 2025 | -7.8% |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Oct 14, 2025 | -2.2% |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Oct 11, 2025 | -2.6% |
| Aug 26, 2025 | Sep 21, 2025 | -5.3% |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Aug 26, 2025 | -6.0% |
| Aug 20, 2025 | Aug 23, 2025 | -3.8% |
| Aug 11, 2025 | Aug 20, 2025 | -5.6% |
| Jul 3, 2025 | Aug 2, 2025 | +3.8% |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Jul 1, 2025 | +0.8% |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Jun 12, 2025 | +27% |
| Feb 5, 2025 | Feb 26, 2025 | +9.2% |
| Jan 16, 2025 | Feb 5, 2025 | -2.9% |
| Oct 15, 2024 | Dec 27, 2024 | +45% |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Oct 15, 2024 | -9.3% |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Oct 10, 2024 | -4.6% |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Sep 7, 2024 | +8.4% |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Aug 29, 2024 | -8.1% |
| Aug 5, 2024 | Aug 24, 2024 | -10% |
| Jul 22, 2024 | Aug 5, 2024 | -15% |
| May 21, 2024 | Jun 10, 2024 | -2.7% |
| Apr 14, 2024 | May 2, 2024 | +8.8% |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Apr 14, 2024 | -5.8% |
| Feb 4, 2024 | Apr 2, 2024 | +62% |
| Jan 1, 2024 | Jan 13, 2024 | +0.9% |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Dec 27, 2023 | +52% |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Jul 21, 2023 | +5.0% |
| May 2, 2023 | Jun 6, 2023 | +8.1% |
| Apr 27, 2023 | May 2, 2023 | -1.4% |
| Mar 15, 2023 | Apr 22, 2023 | +9.8% |
| Mar 8, 2023 | Mar 10, 2023 | +8.0% |
| Feb 16, 2023 | Mar 8, 2023 | -8.9% |
| Jan 6, 2023 | Feb 10, 2023 | +29% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | Nov 10, 2022 | +14% |
| Oct 27, 2022 | Nov 9, 2022 | -11% |
| Aug 3, 2022 | Aug 18, 2022 | +1.3% |
| Apr 12, 2022 | May 6, 2022 | +7.4% |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Apr 12, 2022 | -8.0% |
| Mar 17, 2022 | Mar 21, 2022 | +0.2% |
| Nov 19, 2021 | Dec 5, 2021 | +13% |
| Oct 2, 2021 | Nov 19, 2021 | +18% |
| Sep 16, 2021 | Sep 17, 2021 | -1.0% |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Sep 10, 2021 | +24% |
| May 13, 2021 | May 18, 2021 | +12% |
| May 9, 2021 | May 13, 2021 | -16% |
| Apr 19, 2021 | Apr 23, 2021 | +7.9% |
| Apr 11, 2021 | Apr 19, 2021 | -6.1% |
| Apr 5, 2021 | Apr 8, 2021 | -4.1% |
| Mar 2, 2021 | Apr 3, 2021 | +19% |
| Feb 6, 2021 | Mar 1, 2021 | +18% |
| Dec 13, 2020 | Jan 24, 2021 | +70% |
| Oct 15, 2020 | Dec 11, 2020 | +59% |
| Sep 1, 2020 | Sep 3, 2020 | -2.4% |
| Aug 23, 2020 | Aug 26, 2020 | -3.2% |
| Jul 23, 2020 | Aug 22, 2020 | +21% |
| Jun 25, 2020 | Jul 23, 2020 | -2.9% |
| Jun 23, 2020 | Jun 25, 2020 | -4.4% |
| Jun 20, 2020 | Jun 23, 2020 | -4.4% |
| May 31, 2020 | Jun 20, 2020 | -4.3% |
| Apr 30, 2020 | May 27, 2020 | +0.4% |
| Jan 11, 2020 | Feb 26, 2020 | +13% |
| Nov 16, 2019 | Nov 22, 2019 | +9.7% |
| Nov 14, 2019 | Nov 16, 2019 | -3.6% |
| Sep 9, 2019 | Sep 25, 2019 | +18% |
| Sep 5, 2019 | Sep 9, 2019 | -1.9% |
| Aug 22, 2019 | Sep 5, 2019 | -4.6% |
| Aug 4, 2019 | Aug 22, 2019 | -6.6% |
| Jun 12, 2019 | Jul 15, 2019 | +29% |
| Jun 7, 2019 | Jun 9, 2019 | +1.4% |
| May 2, 2019 | Jun 5, 2019 | +44% |
| Mar 17, 2019 | Apr 29, 2019 | +29% |
| Feb 19, 2019 | Mar 13, 2019 | -0.4% |
BTC 2050 Momentum closed 79 trades: 54% won, and the average trade returned +7.3%.
Prompt
Read https://tickerdb.com/run/btc-2050-momentum and follow its steps. Once it's set up, schedule a daily check every day after 06:00 UTC that reads my model link and tells me only if the model bought or sold something.
Free to run: paste the prompt into Claude or ChatGPT. It gives you one link to approve (sign up free there if you are new), then shows you the model's record and can check it for you every week.
Run it yourself
Clone https://github.com/tickerdb/btc-2050-momentum and follow its README: set up TickerDB using https://tickerdb.com/setup, then schedule run.py to run every day at 04:30 UTC and tell me when it makes a trade.
Free to run: your agent clones the model's open-source repo, sets up a free TickerDB API key and runs the model on your computer, telling you when it trades.
Assets
-
BTCUSD
Parameters
| parameter | value |
|---|---|
| 20 days | |
| 50 days | |
| 1 day | |
| +0.05% | |
| -0.1% | |
| 7.5% | |
| 0.1% each way |
Details
| detail | value |
|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2019 to Nov 8, 2026 | |
| Nov 9, 2026 | |
| Nov 13, 2026, 05:15 UTC | |
| Nov 12, 2026 |
Rules
- 01Go long when BTC closes above a rising 50-day SMA and the 20-day SMA is up at least 0.05% on the day.
- 02Exit when the 20-day SMA drops at least 0.1% on the day, and go short only if BTC is also below its 50-day SMA. Otherwise wait in cash.
- 03Close the short when it's up 7.5% at a daily close, or when the next buy signal fires.
- 04After a take-profit, stay in cash until the next buy signal.
- 05Signals are checked once a day at the close and filled at the next open, with no leverage.
- The rules and parameters were tuned on 2019 to 2026 history, so results after activation can be weaker.
- Costs are 0.1% each way. Shorts pay no funding or borrow fees, and there's no extra slippage.
- Prices are Coinbase daily BTC-USD bars from TickerDB, on UTC days.
- Point in time: each decision sees only closes up to that day.
- No stop-loss on shorts: a squeeze bigger than anything since 2019 would run until the next buy signal.
- This page reports what a published set of rules did. It is not investment advice.